Kelly Criterion Calculator
Find the stake the Kelly criterion suggests from the odds, your own win probability and your bankroll, with half and quarter Kelly options.
How to use the kelly criterion calculator
Enter the decimal odds on offer, the probability you think the bet has of winning and the size of your bankroll.
The Kelly formula stakes more when your edge is bigger and nothing when there is no edge. Full Kelly is aggressive, so many bettors use half or quarter Kelly to smooth out the swings.
Fair odds show the price at which your probability would give zero edge. If the odds on offer are below it, the calculator says no bet.
Example: Odds of 2.20 with a 50% win chance give a 10% edge. Full Kelly stakes 8.3% of the bankroll; half Kelly on a 1,000 bankroll is 41.67.
Frequently asked questions
What is the Kelly criterion?
A staking formula that sizes each bet by your edge and the odds to grow a bankroll as fast as possible over time.
Why use half Kelly?
Full Kelly assumes your probabilities are exact. Half Kelly gives up a little growth for much smaller drawdowns.
What if my edge is negative?
Kelly recommends no stake. A bet without an edge loses money in the long run.
Where does my probability come from?
From your own model or judgement. The result is only as good as the probability you enter.