MLS Betting Guide: Results, Goals and Favourites by the Numbers
Thirteen seasons of MLS results and 1X2 prices show a high-scoring league, a fading home edge and one favourite band that keeps letting backers down.
MLS is a league plenty of bettors watch at odd hours and price on instinct. I wanted to see what 5,233 matches from 2012–2024 say about results, goals, both teams scoring, correct scores and favourites, and where the 1X2 prices drift away from what actually happened.
If you use this file alongside our 1X2 betting tips, the short version is this: home sides won 50.1% of matches, games averaged 2.88 goals and both teams scored in 57.5%. The market prices most favourites close to fair. The clear exception is the weak favourite at 2.40 or longer, which won less often than its odds implied.
Chapter 1Home advantage has softened, and 2024 was its weakest season
The stacked bars split every season into home wins, draws and away wins. The home share peaked in 2017 at 55.0% and fell to its lowest in 2024 at 44.5%, when away sides took 30.7% of matches. Draws peaked in 2016 at 30.3%.
For a bettor, that matters because MLS home advantage gets talked up a lot: travel distances, altitude and artificial pitches. Those factors are real, but the recent seasons sit below the early ones, so I would not assume the old home bump still applies at full strength.
Matches per season: 324–521. 2024 runs to early October.
View the data: mls: home, draw, away by season
| Home win | Draw | Away win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 51.5% | 23.7% | 24.9% |
| 2013 | 50.9% | 25.4% | 23.7% |
| 2014 | 48.5% | 27.8% | 23.7% |
| 2015 | 54.3% | 21.0% | 24.6% |
| 2016 | 50.7% | 30.3% | 19.0% |
| 2017 | 55.0% | 24.3% | 20.7% |
| 2018 | 54.2% | 21.1% | 24.8% |
| 2019 | 52.0% | 22.6% | 25.4% |
| 2020 | 47.2% | 24.1% | 28.7% |
| 2021 | 47.7% | 27.3% | 25.0% |
| 2022 | 49.1% | 24.7% | 26.2% |
| 2023 | 48.2% | 29.2% | 22.6% |
| 2024 | 44.5% | 24.8% | 30.7% |
Bear in mind that 2024 only runs to early October. Even so, the direction is consistent enough that I start from a narrower home edge than the league's reputation suggests.
Chapter 2Goals and both teams scoring are the norm in MLS
This table shows how often each market landed across all 5,233 matches, with the fair price that rate implies. Over 2.5 goals came in 56.3% of the time (fair odds 1.78), both teams scored in 57.5% (fair odds 1.74) and only 6.5% finished 0-0, a fair price of 15.48. Over 3.5 goals still landed in 32.5% of games.
On the result side, home wins landed at 50.1% against 48.1% implied, while away wins came in at 24.7% against 26.4% implied. The draw sat almost exactly on its price, 25.2% against 25.5%, a fair draw price of 3.97.
| Market | Lands | 95% range | Fair odds | Odds imply |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win | 50.1% | ±1.4 | 2.00 | 48.1% |
| Draw | 25.2% | ±1.2 | 3.97 | 25.5% |
| Away win | 24.7% | ±1.2 | 4.05 | 26.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.2% | ±1.1 | 1.28 | – |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.3% | ±1.3 | 1.78 | – |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.5% | ±1.3 | 3.08 | – |
| Both teams score | 57.5% | ±1.3 | 1.74 | – |
| Goalless 0-0 | 6.5% | ±0.7 | 15.48 | – |
"Odds imply" = average margin-free 1X2 probability; no goals-market prices exist in the records.
There are no goal-line or BTTS prices in the records, so these figures are benchmarks, not proof of value. I use the fair odds as a floor: if a price on overs or BTTS is shorter than 1.78 or 1.74, the bookmaker is asking you to beat the league's own history.
Chapter 3A 2-1 home win is the single most common scoreline
The bars rank the ten most frequent full-time scores, home side first. 2-1 leads at 11.3% (fair odds 8.85), just ahead of 1-1 at 10.8% and 1-0 at 9.2%. Together the top ten cover 73.9% of matches, with 3-1 rounding things off at 4.7%.
Fair correct-score odds = 1 / share.
View the data: mls: the 10 most common full-time scores
| % of 5,233 matches; home score first | |
|---|---|
| 2-1 | 11.3% |
| 1-1 | 10.8% |
| 1-0 | 9.2% |
| 2-0 | 7.8% |
| 0-0 | 6.5% |
| 1-2 | 6.4% |
| 2-2 | 6.3% |
| 0-1 | 6.1% |
| 3-0 | 4.8% |
| 3-1 | 4.7% |
What I take from this is that correct-score betting in MLS rewards the open, one-goal margin game rather than the tight shutout. Even so, the top score lands barely more than one match in ten, so any correct-score price should be measured against that 8.85 fair line before it earns a place on a slip.
Chapter 4Long-priced favourites are the one band that underdelivers
Each row compares what the margin-free odds implied for favourites in a price band with how often they actually won. Overall, favourites won 50.8% of 5,221 games against 49.6% implied. Flat-staking every favourite returned −4.1% at the major-bookmaker price but +1.1% at the best available price.
The standout is at the bottom: favourites at 2.40 or longer won 35.1% against 37.6% implied over 609 games, an ROI of −12.3%. The best band relative to price was 1.70–1.99, winning 54.1% against 51.1% implied across 1,533 games, still a small loss at −0.8%.
ROI = flat 1-unit stakes on the favourite at the major-bookmaker price.
View the data: mls favourites: priced vs actual win rate
| Odds imply | Won | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.40 (182 games · ROI −2.7%) | 71.1% | 73.6% | ±6.4 |
| 1.40–1.69 (1,148 games · ROI −3.5%) | 60.1% | 61.8% | ±2.8 |
| 1.70–1.99 (1,533 games · ROI −0.8%) | 51.1% | 54.1% | ±2.5 |
| 2.00–2.39 (1,749 games · ROI −4.7%) | 43.2% | 43.9% | ±2.3 |
| 2.40 or longer (609 games · ROI −12.3%) | 37.6% | 35.1% | ±3.8 |
The usual caveat applies. These are past rates that include play-off matches, not a system, and the margin sits on every real bet. The pattern tells me where to be sceptical, not where profit is waiting.
Chapter 5Toronto and Houston have been the costliest clubs to follow
The table covers the ten clubs with the most matches in the sample. Seattle Sounders had the best record at 46.6% wins from 470 games, including 60.0% at home. At the other end, Toronto FC won 32.5% from 449 matches and backing them every game returned −21.4%, with Houston Dynamo close behind at −19.6%.
Real Salt Lake were the best of the ten to back blind, at +3.8%. For goals, Portland Timbers matches had the highest BTTS rate at 64.2% and Los Angeles Galaxy games averaged the most goals at 3.19.
| Club | Matches | Win % | Home win % | Goals/game | BTTS % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Sounders | 470 | 46.6% | 60.0% | 2.63 | 51.3% | +1.5% |
| New York Red Bulls | 459 | 43.4% | 56.8% | 2.81 | 55.6% | −5.0% |
| Sporting Kansas City | 453 | 40.4% | 51.3% | 2.72 | 55.4% | −9.8% |
| Los Angeles Galaxy | 450 | 40.4% | 53.9% | 3.19 | 60.0% | −10.5% |
| Columbus Crew | 456 | 40.1% | 56.5% | 2.82 | 57.2% | −7.4% |
| Real Salt Lake | 452 | 39.8% | 53.8% | 2.83 | 54.9% | +3.8% |
| Portland Timbers | 458 | 39.5% | 53.0% | 3.01 | 64.2% | −3.0% |
| New England Revolution | 447 | 38.0% | 51.1% | 2.89 | 57.7% | −6.9% |
| Houston Dynamo | 451 | 32.6% | 48.7% | 2.76 | 56.5% | −19.6% |
| Toronto FC | 449 | 32.5% | 42.9% | 2.97 | 58.8% | −21.4% |
Goals/game = total goals in the club's matches. ROI at the major-bookmaker price, flat stakes.
Club reputations stick in a league like this, and the prices seem to follow them. A big name with a poor return is a sign the market has been paying for the badge rather than the results.
Before you bet in this league
- Weak favourites, extra cautionFavourites at 2.40 or longer won 35.1% against 37.6% implied, an ROI of −12.3%. When the favourite is that loosely priced, I treat the match as closer to open than the label suggests.
- Price shopping matters mostBacking every favourite returned −4.1% at the major-bookmaker price but +1.1% at the best available price. That gap is a history lesson about margins, not a promise that the edge will repeat.
- Goals benchmarks before bettingOver 2.5 goals landed in 56.3% of matches and both teams scored in 57.5%. Compare any overs or BTTS price with the fair 1.78 and 1.74 before accepting it.
Questions bettors ask
How often do home teams win in MLS?
Home teams won 50.1% of 5,233 MLS matches, with 25.2% drawn and 24.7% won by the away side. The home share has varied, from 55.0% in 2017 down to 44.5% in 2024.
Is over 2.5 goals a good bet in MLS?
Over 2.5 goals landed in 56.3% of MLS matches, which gives a fair price of 1.78. Whether a bet is good depends on getting a price longer than that, because the records hold no goal-line odds to confirm it.
What is the most common correct score in MLS?
2-1 is the most common MLS scoreline at 11.3% of matches, a fair price of 8.85. It is followed by 1-1 at 10.8% and 1-0 at 9.2%.
Rowan Maddox here. I don't tie myself to one market — some weeks it's a goal total, some weeks the result, some weeks both teams scoring. The fixture decides where the edge is, not my habit.
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