MLS Correct Score by Home Odds: Fair Prices for Every Result
Across 5,233 MLS matches, the home-win price reshapes which final scores turn up. Here is how the board moves from short favourites to home outsiders.
When I build correct score predictions for MLS, the first thing I check is the home-win price. The question behind this study is simple: at each level of home odds, which final scores actually turn up most often, and what would a fair price for them look like?
The headline answer is that 2-1 is the league's most common score at 11.3%, a fair price of 8.85, but it isn't the leader everywhere. Under 1.60 the top score is 2-0, and from 1.90–2.19 onwards it is 1-1. The charts below show how that shift happens.
Chapter 1Two-one is the single most common MLS final score
Start with the whole league before splitting by price. Across 5,233 matches, 2-1 finished 11.3% of games, with 1-1 on 10.8% and 1-0 on 9.2%. After those three the chart flattens quickly: 2-0 sits at 7.8%, then 0-0, 1-2, 2-2 and 0-1 are bunched between 6.5% and 6.1%.
View the data: the ten most common mls scores
| Share of all 5,233 matches | |
|---|---|
| 2-1 | 11.3% |
| 1-1 | 10.8% |
| 1-0 | 9.2% |
| 2-0 | 7.8% |
| 0-0 | 6.5% |
| 1-2 | 6.4% |
| 2-2 | 6.3% |
| 0-1 | 6.1% |
| 3-0 | 4.8% |
| 3-1 | 4.7% |
What strikes me is how little separates the top three. No single score owns MLS, so a league-wide fair price is only a starting point. The home odds tell you which part of the board to lean on.
Chapter 2Shorter home prices push the board towards 2-0 and 3-0
The heatmap splits every score by home-win price band. Read across the 2-0 row and it falls steadily, from 11.9% when the home side is under 1.60 to 4.9% at 2.60+, while 3-0 drops from 7.4% to 2.1%. The away scores move the other way: 0-1 climbs from 2.8% to 9.9% and 1-2 from 3.9% to 8.2%.
The rows that barely move are just as interesting. 2-1 stays between 10.7% and 12.0% in every band, and 1-1 ranges only from 9.1% to 11.8%. 0-0 rises from 4.5% in the shortest band to 6.7% at 2.60 or bigger.
Columns are home-win odds bands; matches per band: Under 1.60 826, 1.60–1.89 1,480, 1.90–2.19 1,283, 2.20–2.59 989, 2.60+ 655.
View the data: mls final scores by home win price
| Under 1.60 | 1.60–1.89 | 1.90–2.19 | 2.20–2.59 | 2.60+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | 11.3% | 12.0% | 11.1% | 11.0% | 10.7% |
| 1-1 | 9.1% | 10.5% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 11.1% |
| 1-0 | 9.3% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 6.7% |
| 2-0 | 11.9% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 4.9% |
| 0-0 | 4.5% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.7% |
| 1-2 | 3.9% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 8.2% |
| 2-2 | 5.6% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.3% |
| 0-1 | 2.8% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 9.9% |
| 3-0 | 7.4% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.1% |
| 3-1 | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 3.5% |
For me that makes 2-1 the most price-resistant score in the league. Whoever is favourite, it is never far from the top of the board.
Chapter 3Big MLS home favourites win comfortably more often than narrowly
This chart splits results into home wins by two or more, home wins by one, draws and away wins. Under 1.60, the home side won by two or more in 41.0% of matches and by exactly one in 25.5%, with only 12.5% going to the visitors. At 2.60 or bigger the picture flips: the away side won 38.8% and the home side won by two or more in just 13.6%.
The draw band is the quiet story. It runs from 20.9% in the shortest band up to 27.6% at 1.90–2.19, and still holds at 26.9% at 2.60+.
View the data: how mls home sides win at each price
| Home by 2+ | Home by 1 | Draw | Away win | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.60 (826) | 41.0% | 25.5% | 20.9% | 12.5% |
| 1.60–1.89 (1,480) | 29.9% | 27.4% | 23.7% | 19.1% |
| 1.90–2.19 (1,283) | 22.5% | 24.6% | 27.6% | 25.3% |
| 2.20–2.59 (989) | 16.4% | 23.6% | 26.7% | 33.4% |
| 2.60+ (655) | 13.6% | 20.8% | 26.9% | 38.8% |
If you like backing a strong home side in the correct score market, this is the case for spreading towards two-goal margins rather than defaulting to the one-goal win.
Chapter 4The likeliest score changes from 2-0 to 1-1 as prices lengthen
The table boils the heatmap down to the top two scores per band. Under 1.60 it is 2-0 at 11.9% (fair odds 8.40), just ahead of 2-1 at 11.3%, across 826 matches. At 1.60–1.89 it is 2-1 at 12.0% with fair odds of 8.33, and from 1.90–2.19 onwards 1-1 takes over, peaking at 11.8% in the 2.20–2.59 band and sitting at 11.1% (fair odds 9.01) at 2.60+.
Remember what those fair odds are: break-even figures from past frequencies, not prices you will be offered. Correct score markets carry a margin, so a bet only makes sense when the price on offer sits above the fair number. The gaps between the top scores here are small enough that a margin can swallow them.
| Home odds | Matches | Top score | Share | Fair odds | 2nd score | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.60 | 826 | 2-0 | 11.9% | 8.40 | 2-1 | 11.3% |
| 1.60–1.89 | 1,480 | 2-1 | 12.0% | 8.33 | 1-1 | 10.5% |
| 1.90–2.19 | 1,283 | 1-1 | 11.5% | 8.70 | 2-1 | 11.1% |
| 2.20–2.59 | 989 | 1-1 | 11.8% | 8.47 | 2-1 | 11.0% |
| 2.60+ | 655 | 1-1 | 11.1% | 9.01 | 2-1 | 10.7% |
Notice that 2-1 is either first or second in every single band. That consistency is why I treat it as the anchor score in this league.
Before you bet in this league
- Short home favouritesUnder 1.60, 2-0 (11.9%) edged 2-1, and home sides won by two or more in 41.0% of matches. Compare any 2-0 price with the fair 8.40 before assuming the narrow win is the better bet.
- Even and outsider homesFrom 1.90–2.19 upwards, 1-1 was the top score in every band, with a fair price of 9.01 at 2.60+. Draws landed in 27.6% of matches at 1.90–2.19, so don't dismiss the stalemate in balanced games.
- 2-1 as the anchor2-1 never dropped below 10.7% in any band, and its league-wide fair price is 8.85. A quoted price needs to sit above that figure to be worth a look, and the built-in margin usually keeps offered odds below it.
Questions bettors ask
What is the most common correct score in MLS?
2-1 is the most common MLS score, finishing 11.3% of 5,233 matches, which works out at fair odds of 8.85. It is followed by 1-1 at 10.8% and 1-0 at 9.2%.
How often does an MLS match finish 0-0?
Across the league 0-0 accounts for 6.5% of matches. It is rarer with a strong home favourite, at 4.5% under 1.60, and rises to 6.7% when the home side is 2.60 or bigger.
How often do heavy MLS home favourites win by two or more goals?
Home sides priced under 1.60 won by two or more goals in 41.0% of matches and by exactly one goal in 25.5%. That is why 2-0, at 11.9%, was the likeliest score in that band.
I'm Jacob Lockwood, and after a year of writing about football betting, I focus mainly on Correct Score and Over/Under markets.
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