Allsvenskan Favourites by Price: How Often Do They Really Win?
Swedish favourites win slightly more often than their prices say. The short end of the market is close to fair, the long end is where favourite backers lose money.
Allsvenskan is a league plenty of bettors back on autopilot during the summer, when the big European leagues are quiet. I wanted to test that habit properly: across 3,110 matches with 1X2 prices, how often does the favourite actually win at each price, and does backing them blind pay?
The headline answer is that favourites won 52.0% of the time, against an average margin-free win chance of 51.3%. So the market is roughly right, slightly cautious if anything. That still was not enough to beat the margin: backing every favourite at a major bookmaker returned −5.5%. This is the same kind of homework that sits behind my free 1X2 picks page.
Chapter 1Short-priced Swedish favourites win more often than priced
Each row compares the win chance the odds implied, with the margin stripped out, against what the favourite actually delivered. At the short end the gap runs in the backer's favour. Favourites under 1.30 won 82.4% of 131 matches against an implied 77.1%. At 1.30–1.49 they won 72.0% against 67.5%, and at 1.50–1.69 it was 61.0% against 58.9%.
As the price drifts, the edge disappears. By 1.70–1.99 the market and the results sit almost on top of each other. Once the favourite is 2.30 or bigger, they won only 35.2% of 662 matches, with 30.5% drawn, and that is below what the price implied.
View the data: allsvenskan favourites: priced vs actual win rate
| Priced | Won | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.30 (131 matches) | 77.1% | 82.4% | ±6.5 |
| 1.30–1.49 (407 matches) | 67.5% | 72.0% | ±4.4 |
| 1.50–1.69 (502 matches) | 58.9% | 61.0% | ±4.3 |
| 1.70–1.99 (727 matches) | 51.1% | 52.1% | ±3.6 |
| 2.00–2.29 (681 matches) | 43.9% | 43.8% | ±3.7 |
| 2.30 and up (662 matches) | 38.3% | 35.2% | ±3.6 |
My reading is that the Swedish market slightly underrates genuine class gaps and slightly overrates marginal favourites. When one side is clearly better, trust it a touch more than the odds do. When the match is a near coin flip, the side labelled favourite is often only nominally ahead.
Chapter 2Favourite backing only breaks even at the shortest prices
Win rates are one thing. Returns after the bookmaker's cut are what count. At the major bookmaker's price the under-1.30 band was the best place to be, at +0.7%, and that rose to +4.2% at the best available price. At the other end, 2.30 and up returned −13.4% at the major bookmaker and −7.9% even at the best price.
Look at the total row. Backing every favourite cost −5.5% at the major bookmaker but only −0.7% at the best price. That gap is bigger than most edges you will ever find in your own analysis.
View the data: backing every favourite: return by price
| Major bookmaker | Best price | |
|---|---|---|
| Under 1.30 | +0.7% | +4.2% |
| 1.30–1.49 | +0.2% | +4.1% |
| 1.50–1.69 | −2.8% | +1.4% |
| 1.70–1.99 | −4.2% | +0.7% |
| 2.00–2.29 | −5.9% | −0.4% |
| 2.30 and up | −13.4% | −7.9% |
| All favourites | −5.5% | −0.7% |
One honest caveat applies to everything here. Each band holds a few hundred matches at most, and the prices are single snapshots rather than closing lines, so the band-level returns are wide estimates, not a system. The direction is consistent, though: shorter is better, and price shopping matters more than picking.
Chapter 3Away favourites in Sweden hold up better than expected
I expected home favourites to be the safer side. The data says otherwise. Home favourites under 1.60 won 71.0% of 663 matches and drew 19.0%. Away favourites at the same prices won 75.4% of 114 and drew only 14.0%.
The longer prices show the same pattern. Home favourites at 1.60 or bigger won 44.4% of 1,424 matches, while away favourites at 1.60 or bigger won 47.1% of 909.
View the data: home vs away favourites: how the match ends
| Favourite won | Draw | Favourite lost | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home fav under 1.60 (663) | 71.0% | 19.0% | 10.0% |
| Home fav 1.60 and up (1,424) | 44.4% | 28.7% | 26.9% |
| Away fav under 1.60 (114) | 75.4% | 14.0% | 10.5% |
| Away fav 1.60 and up (909) | 47.1% | 25.7% | 27.2% |
A side priced as favourite on the road in this league is usually there because it is clearly the stronger team, and the draw takes fewer of those matches. The away sample at short prices is small, so I treat this as a lean rather than a rule. Even so, I no longer mark down an away favourite just for travelling.
Chapter 4One strange season can wreck a favourite strategy
The priced line barely moves from season to season. The actual win rate swings hard. Favourites peaked at 58.3% in 2019, when they were priced at 51.7%, then fell to 42.1% in 2020, when the price said 50.5%.
That is the danger of judging an approach on one campaign. A bettor who started backing favourites after 2019 walked straight into the worst season in the records.
View the data: favourite win rate by allsvenskan season
| Favourite won | Priced | |
|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 47.9% | 50.3% |
| 2013 | 49.2% | 50.9% |
| 2014 | 49.6% | 51.1% |
| 2015 | 57.0% | 52.1% |
| 2016 | 53.7% | 51.4% |
| 2017 | 50.4% | 51.2% |
| 2018 | 57.9% | 53.0% |
| 2019 | 58.3% | 51.7% |
| 2020 | 42.1% | 50.5% |
| 2021 | 54.5% | 50.9% |
| 2022 | 52.9% | 52.6% |
| 2023 | 53.8% | 51.3% |
Before you bet in this league
- Respect the clear mismatchesFavourites under 1.30 won 82.4% against an implied 77.1%, and this was the only band that was roughly break-even or better at the major bookmaker. If you are backing a favourite in Sweden, this is where the price has been closest to fair.
- Be wary at 2.30 and biggerThese favourites won just 35.2% with 30.5% drawn, and returned −13.4% at the major bookmaker. In these matches the draw or the underdog deserves a proper look before you default to the favourite.
- Always compare the priceBlind favourite backing went from −5.5% to −0.7% simply by taking the best available price. Check what a sharp bookmaker or the betting exchange offers before you settle for a single quote.
Questions bettors ask
How often do favourites win in the Allsvenskan?
Across 3,110 matches the favourite won 52.0%, 25.2% were drawn and the favourite lost 22.8%. That is slightly above the 51.3% average win chance the margin-free prices implied.
Is it profitable to back every Allsvenskan favourite?
Not at a single bookmaker. Flat stakes on every favourite returned −5.5% at the major bookmaker and −0.7% at the best available price, so the margin wiped out the small edge.
Do away favourites win more often than home favourites in Sweden?
In this data, yes. Away favourites under 1.60 won 75.4% compared with 71.0% for home favourites, and at 1.60 or bigger it was 47.1% against 44.4%.
Oliver Brennan, 1X2 writer. Three years of going through fixtures one by one and learning the hard way that recent form alone doesn't tell you who's going to win.
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