How Often Do MLS Favourites Win? 5,221 Matches by Price
MLS favourites win slightly more often than their prices suggest. The margin still eats that edge, and away favourites at longer prices are where the market looks weakest.
MLS has a reputation as a league where the favourite is never safe. Travel, turf, altitude and a salary structure built for parity all feed that idea. I wanted to test it against the prices, so this study covers 5,221 matches with a clear favourite, from 2012–2024, and asks two things: how often favourites win at each price, and whether backing them blind makes money.
The short answer is that MLS favourites won 50.8% of the time against a margin-free implied 49.6%. The market slightly undersells them, but not by enough to beat the margin at a major bookmaker, where backing every favourite returned −4.1%. That gap between a fair-looking price and a profitable one is the theme of most of what I write on my match result tips page, and this league shows it clearly.
Chapter 1Favourites win slightly more often than priced, except at 2.30+
Each row compares what the market implied with what actually happened. In the four shorter bands, the actual win rate sits a little above the price. The clearest example is 1.70–1.99, where favourites won 54.1% of 1,533 matches against a priced 51.1%. Under 1.40 they won 73.6% against 71.1%, and in the 1.40–1.69 band they won 61.8% against 60.1%.
The pattern turns at 2.30+. There, favourites won 37.1% of 976 matches against a priced 38.5%. That is the only band where the market overrated the favourite, and it is the band where the 'favourite' tag means the least.
Bars show 95% range of the actual win rate.
View the data: mls favourites: priced vs actual win rate
| Priced | Actually won | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.40 (182 matches) | 71.1% | 73.6% | ±6.4 |
| 1.40–1.69 (1,148 matches) | 60.1% | 61.8% | ±2.8 |
| 1.70–1.99 (1,533 matches) | 51.1% | 54.1% | ±2.5 |
| 2.00–2.29 (1,382 matches) | 44.0% | 44.8% | ±2.6 |
| 2.30+ (976 matches) | 38.5% | 37.1% | ±3 |
The 95% ranges matter here. The under 1.40 band has only 182 matches, and its range is wide enough to swallow the gap between price and result. I read the shorter bands as fairly priced with a slight lean towards the favourite, not as a mispricing I can count on.
Chapter 2The bookmaker margin turns a small edge into a loss
This is where the slight underpricing meets the margin. At a major bookmaker every band loses money. The best of them is 1.70–1.99 at −0.8%, and the worst is 2.30+ at −9.7%. Across all favourites the figure is −4.1%.
The best-price bars look much kinder: +4.4% in the 1.70–1.99 band and +1.1% overall. I treat those with real caution. Best available prices are the top quote across many books at the moment of collection, and almost nobody gets all of them, so those bars flatter what a real bettor would see.
View the data: backing every mls favourite: return by price
| Major bookmaker | Best price | |
|---|---|---|
| Under 1.40 | −2.7% | +1.3% |
| 1.40–1.69 | −3.5% | +1.0% |
| 1.70–1.99 | −0.8% | +4.4% |
| 2.00–2.29 | −4.5% | +1.1% |
| 2.30+ | −9.7% | −3.9% |
| All favourites | −4.1% | +1.1% |
What I take from this is that price shopping matters in MLS more than picking. The same selections swing from a loss to roughly break-even depending on where you bet. That says something about where the edge lies, if there is one.
Chapter 3Away favourites at 2.20 or longer lose more than they win
Home favourites make up 87.8% of MLS favourites (4,585 of 5,221) and won 52.3%. Away favourites, across 636 matches, won only 39.8%. Short home favourites under 1.70 are the most dependable group in the league: 63.5% wins, 22.9% draws and 13.6% defeats from 1,304 matches.
The striking row is the bottom one. Away favourites priced 2.20 or longer won just 34.2% of 407 matches, drew 27.3% and lost 38.6%. In that bracket the supposed underdog won more often than the favourite.
View the data: mls home and away favourites: how the match ends
| Favourite wins | Draw | Favourite loses | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home fav under 1.70 (1,304) | 63.5% | 22.9% | 13.6% |
| Home fav 1.70+ (3,281) | 47.9% | 26.0% | 26.1% |
| Away fav under 2.20 (229) | 49.8% | 23.1% | 27.1% |
| Away fav 2.20+ (407) | 34.2% | 27.3% | 38.6% |
Shorter away favourites hold up better, winning 49.8% of 229 matches, though flat stakes there still returned −3.2% at the major bookmaker. The samples are small, so I would not build a system on them. They are reason enough to be sceptical whenever a travelling side is only marginally preferred.
Chapter 4Favourites have underperformed their prices in recent seasons
Season by season, favourites beat their implied rate through most of the early and middle years. The best was 2012, at 53.4% against an implied 47.5% across 337 matches, and the run from 2017 to 2019 was also comfortably above the line. Since then the two lines have converged and flipped, with favourites falling short in 2022 and 2023.
The worst season was 2024, where favourites won 46.1% against an implied 49.9% from 477 matches. The records stop in early to mid-October, so that season is incomplete.
Data run to early/mid-October 2024, so 2024 seasons are incomplete.
View the data: mls favourite win rate by season
| Actual | Implied | |
|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 53.4% | 47.5% |
| 2013 | 51.8% | 48.0% |
| 2014 | 49.4% | 48.4% |
| 2015 | 52.1% | 47.7% |
| 2016 | 49.6% | 49.4% |
| 2017 | 55.2% | 51.0% |
| 2018 | 55.3% | 52.8% |
| 2019 | 54.5% | 52.1% |
| 2020 | 49.8% | 49.0% |
| 2021 | 49.6% | 49.4% |
| 2022 | 48.6% | 49.3% |
| 2023 | 47.7% | 48.8% |
| 2024 | 46.1% | 49.9% |
I read this as the market catching up. The underpricing that once existed has largely gone, and the recent seasons suggest that, if anything, favourites are now priced a touch too short. The all-period averages hide that shift.
Before you bet in this league
- Short home favouritesHome favourites under 1.70 won 63.5% and lost only 13.6% of 1,304 matches, so they are the most reliable group in MLS. They are priced to match, though, so treat them as fair rather than as value.
- Long away favouritesAway favourites at 2.20 or longer won only 34.2% and lost 38.6% of 407 matches. When a travelling side is barely preferred, I compare the price with how often that bracket actually wins before backing it.
- Compare prices, not just picksBacking every favourite returned −4.1% at a major bookmaker, and no band showed a profit at that price. The best-price figures are a collection of top quotes that no single bettor could reliably get, so I treat them as an upper bound, not a target.
Questions bettors ask
How often do favourites win in MLS?
Across 5,221 MLS matches with a clear favourite, the favourite won 50.8% of the time. The margin-free implied rate was 49.6%, so the market priced them close to accurately.
Does backing every MLS favourite make a profit?
Not at a major bookmaker. Flat stakes on every favourite returned −4.1%, and the 2.30+ band was the worst at −9.7%.
Are away favourites in MLS worth backing?
Away favourites won only 39.8% of 636 matches. Those priced 2.20 or longer won just 34.2% and lost more often than they won, so I approach them with caution.
I'm Lucas Pemberton, a football betting writer focused on 1X2 markets, turning weekend match-watching habits into structured analysis over the past two years.
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