Chinese Super League Correct Score Stats and Fair Odds
Eleven seasons of Chinese Super League full-time results, turned into score frequencies and fair odds. 1-1 leads, home wins dominate the mirror scores, and goalless draws move around more than you would expect.
When I price an exact score, I start with what the league actually produces before I think about the two teams. The Chinese Super League is a competition many bettors only half follow, so I went back through 2,544 matches with a final score from 2014 to 2024. This file sits behind my correct score predictions page for the league.
The headline answer is plain. 1-1 is the most common score at 11.9%, a fair price of 8.42, followed by 2-1 at 10.5% and 1-0 at 8.3%. Behind that sits a clear home bias in the winning scorelines and a lot of movement from season to season, which is where the real pricing work happens.
Chapter 11-1 and 2-1 lead a fairly crowded top ten
The table lists the ten most common scores with their share, a 95% range and the fair odds on frequency alone. 1-1 landed in 302 matches and 2-1 in 268, with 1-0 a clear step behind at 8.3%. Below that, 1-2, 0-1, 2-0 and 0-0 are packed almost on top of each other, all between 6.7% and 6.9%.
That cluster matters. On frequency alone 0-1 and 2-0 share fair odds of 14.71, 0-0 sits at 14.88 and 1-2 at 14.54, so a market can easily price one of these scores well away from its neighbours without much justification.
| Score | Matches | Share | 95% range | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 302 | 11.9% | 10.6%–13.2% | 8.42 |
| 2-1 | 268 | 10.5% | 9.3%–11.7% | 9.49 |
| 1-0 | 211 | 8.3% | 7.2%–9.4% | 12.06 |
| 1-2 | 175 | 6.9% | 5.9%–7.9% | 14.54 |
| 0-1 | 173 | 6.8% | 5.8%–7.8% | 14.71 |
| 2-0 | 173 | 6.8% | 5.8%–7.8% | 14.71 |
| 0-0 | 171 | 6.7% | 5.7%–7.7% | 14.88 |
| 2-2 | 137 | 5.4% | 4.5%–6.3% | 18.57 |
| 3-1 | 110 | 4.3% | 3.5%–5.1% | 23.13 |
| 0-2 | 105 | 4.1% | 3.3%–4.9% | 24.23 |
| Any other score | 719 | 28.3% | 3.54 |
The ten most common scores covered 71.7% of matches, which leaves 28.3% for every other score combined, fair odds of 3.54. That is a big tail for a correct score backer to ignore, and it is the main reason I rarely back a single exact score blind in this league.
Chapter 2Home sides score more freely and blank less often
The grid reads home goals down the side and away goals across the top. The heaviest cells form a band around one or two goals per side, with 1-1 the hottest square and 2-1 just below it. The bottom-left corner, where the home team scores heavily and the away team does not, is visibly warmer than the top-right mirror.
The supporting figures confirm it. The home team failed to score in 21.6% of matches against 28.9% for the away team. One side reached four or more goals in 13.6% of games, and the home side did it in 8.8% against 5.1% for visitors.
View the data: csl score grid: home goals by away goals
| Away 0 | Away 1 | Away 2 | Away 3 | Away 4+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home 0 | 6.7% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.5% |
| Home 1 | 8.3% | 11.9% | 6.9% | 2.5% | 1.5% |
| Home 2 | 6.8% | 10.5% | 5.4% | 1.9% | 1.1% |
| Home 3 | 4.1% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.7% |
| Home 4+ | 2.9% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
For me, that asymmetry is the most useful thing in the grid. A visiting side keeping a clean sheet is not rare here, but the home side drawing a blank happens noticeably less often, and scores like 0-1 and 0-2 need a strong reason before I touch them.
Chapter 3Every home winning score beats its away mirror
This chart pairs each home-win score with the same score the other way round. In every one of the six pairs, the home version lands more often. The widest gaps are 2-1 against 1-2, at 10.5% versus 6.9%, and 2-0 against 0-2, at 6.8% versus 4.1%.
The pattern holds right out to the larger margins. 3-0 came in 104 times against 62 for 0-3, and 3-1 came in 110 times against 63 for 1-3. Even 3-2 against 2-3, the closest pair, still leans home at 2.6% versus 1.9%.
View the data: home-win scores vs the same away-win score
| Home win score | Mirror away win | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 vs 0-1 (211 vs 173 matches) | 8.3% | 6.8% |
| 2-0 vs 0-2 (173 vs 105 matches) | 6.8% | 4.1% |
| 2-1 vs 1-2 (268 vs 175 matches) | 10.5% | 6.9% |
| 3-0 vs 0-3 (104 vs 62 matches) | 4.1% | 2.4% |
| 3-1 vs 1-3 (110 vs 63 matches) | 4.3% | 2.5% |
| 3-2 vs 2-3 (67 vs 48 matches) | 2.6% | 1.9% |
What I take from it is simple: a price on an away winning score should usually be longer than the home mirror. When I see the two quoted close together, that is the first thing I check.
Chapter 4Low scores swing sharply from one season to the next
The line chart tracks the three low-scoring outcomes I watch most: a one-goal 1-0 or 0-1, 1-1 and 0-0. The single-goal share ran from 11.7% in 2017 to 18.8% in 2023, while 1-1 ranged between 8.8% and 17.1%. 0-0 moved between 3.3% and 10.4%, a much wider spread than the long-run 6.7% suggests.
There is also a quieter shift underneath. Wins by three or more goals made up 15.7% of games in 2014–2019 and 18.6% from 2020 to 2024, while 0-0 rose from 6.4% to 7.2% across the same split. The later seasons have produced both more lopsided results and slightly more goalless draws.
View the data: 1-0/0-1, 1-1 and 0-0 by csl season
| 1-0 or 0-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 17.1% | 12.9% | 7.9% |
| 2015 | 15.0% | 12.1% | 7.5% |
| 2016 | 16.2% | 12.5% | 9.2% |
| 2017 | 11.7% | 12.5% | 6.2% |
| 2018 | 12.1% | 12.1% | 4.2% |
| 2019 | 12.5% | 8.8% | 3.3% |
| 2020 | 14.2% | 9.9% | 8.6% |
| 2021 | 17.7% | 13.4% | 10.4% |
| 2022 | 15.5% | 9.9% | 6.5% |
| 2023 | 18.8% | 17.1% | 5.8% |
| 2024 | 15.7% | 9.7% | 6.0% |
My caveat applies to everything here: these are league-wide frequencies, so the fair price of any score in a given match depends heavily on the two teams. The latest season is also incomplete in the records, and some seasons include play-off or championship-round fixtures, so I treat the most recent figures with extra care.
Before you bet in this league
- Start with 1-11-1 is the most common score at 11.9%, fair odds 8.42. If a price on it is clearly shorter than that baseline, I want a match-specific reason before backing it.
- Lengthen the away mirrorEvery home-win score beat its away mirror, with 2-1 at 10.5% against 6.9% for 1-2. An away winning score priced close to its home version deserves a second look.
- Respect the tailScores outside the top ten came in 28.3% of the time, so even the strongest single score loses far more often than it wins. Compare any exact-score price with its fair odds rather than treating the favourite score as likely.
Questions bettors ask
What is the most common correct score in the Chinese Super League?
1-1 is the most common, finishing 11.9% of the 2,544 matches analysed. That gives fair odds of 8.42 before any bookmaker margin.
How often does a Chinese Super League match finish 0-0?
A goalless draw finished 6.7% of matches, 171 games in total, which is a fair price of 14.88. By season it ranged between 3.3% and 10.4%.
Do home teams win by bigger scores in the CSL?
Yes, home-win scores land more often than their away mirrors. 2-0 came in 6.8% of matches against 4.1% for 0-2, and the home side scored four or more in 8.8% of games against 5.1% for visitors.
Ethan Halloway here — Correct Score is the market I keep coming back to, mostly because I find myself fascinated by how a 1-1 happens for very different reasons in different leagues.
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