Eliteserien Correct Score Stats: Norway's Most Common Scores
Thirteen seasons of Norwegian top-flight results show where the scorelines cluster, how strongly they lean towards the home side, and how unreliable the low scores are from one year to the next.
Eliteserien has a reputation for open, slightly chaotic football. Pitches vary, the calendar runs through the Nordic summer and the gap between the top and the middle of the table can be narrow. I wanted to see what that looks like on the scoreboard, so I went through 3,092 matches with a final score from 2012 to 2024 and counted every result.
The headline answer is simple: 1-1 is the most common score at 11.9%, a fair price of 8.38 on frequency alone. Behind it, 2-1 and 1-0 are level at 8.4% each. What makes this league interesting is what sits around those three: a strong home lean and a long tail of unusual scores. The charts below take each in turn, and they are the same base numbers I start from before building my exact score predictions page.
Chapter 1Most Eliteserien matches finish with one or two goals per side
The grid puts home goals on the rows and away goals on the columns, so every square is one exact scoreline. The darkest block sits in the top-left corner, where both teams score between zero and two. The 1-1 square is the clear peak, with 2-1 and 1-0 just below it.
Look along the edges as well. A goalless 0-0 finished only 5.5% of matches, which is fewer than 1-0, 0-1, 2-0, 2-1 or 1-2. One side reached four or more goals in 14.7% of games, and the home side did that far more often than the away side, at 10.5% against 4.5%.
View the data: eliteserien score grid: home goals by away goals
| Away 0 | Away 1 | Away 2 | Away 3 | Away 4+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home 0 | 5.5% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 1.2% |
| Home 1 | 8.4% | 11.9% | 7.3% | 2.9% | 1.4% |
| Home 2 | 6.6% | 8.4% | 5.8% | 2.0% | 1.0% |
| Home 3 | 4.4% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Home 4+ | 3.6% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
For me, the shape matters more than any single square. Norwegian matches seldom stay locked at nil-nil, and they often break open late. That pushes probability away from the very lowest scores and towards the 1-1, 2-1 and 2-2 area.
Chapter 2The ten most common scores still miss nearly a third
The table ranks the ten most common results with their match counts, a 95% range and the fair odds. 1-1 is on its own at 8.38. Then 2-1 at 11.85 and 1-0 at 11.94 are effectively tied, and 1-2 at 13.68 is not far behind. A goalless draw has a fair price of 18.19, and 3-0 closes the list at 22.90.
The bottom row is the one I keep coming back to. The ten most common scores covered 69.9% of matches, and everything else together landed 30.1% of the time, a fair price of 3.32. In this league, odd results such as 4-1, 2-3 or 0-4 are common enough as a group to matter.
| Score | Matches | Share | 95% range | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 369 | 11.9% | 10.8%โ13.0% | 8.38 |
| 2-1 | 261 | 8.4% | 7.4%โ9.4% | 11.85 |
| 1-0 | 259 | 8.4% | 7.4%โ9.4% | 11.94 |
| 1-2 | 226 | 7.3% | 6.4%โ8.2% | 13.68 |
| 2-0 | 205 | 6.6% | 5.7%โ7.5% | 15.08 |
| 0-1 | 195 | 6.3% | 5.4%โ7.2% | 15.86 |
| 2-2 | 180 | 5.8% | 5.0%โ6.6% | 17.18 |
| 0-0 | 170 | 5.5% | 4.7%โ6.3% | 18.19 |
| 3-1 | 162 | 5.2% | 4.4%โ6.0% | 19.09 |
| 3-0 | 135 | 4.4% | 3.7%โ5.1% | 22.90 |
| Any other score | 930 | 30.1% | 3.32 |
The 95% ranges are a useful check on my own confidence. Even 1-1, with the narrowest relative spread, could sit anywhere from 10.8% to 13.0% over the long run. A quoted price only interests me when it beats the weak end of that range.
Chapter 3Home-win scorelines beat their away mirror at every margin
Each row here sets a home-win score against its mirror away-win score. The home version comes out ahead every time. 1-0 landed in 8.4% of matches against 6.3% for 0-1, and 2-1 in 8.4% against 7.3% for 1-2.
The gap widens as the margin grows. 2-0 came in 6.6% against 3.8% for 0-2. 3-0 shows the starkest split, with 135 home 3-0s against just 54 away 0-3s. Over all games, the home side won 47.1%, and the away side failed to score far more often than the home side, at 28.5% against 18.6%.
View the data: home-win scores vs the same away-win score
| Home win score | Mirror away win | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 vs 0-1 (259 vs 195 matches) | 8.4% | 6.3% |
| 2-0 vs 0-2 (205 vs 119 matches) | 6.6% | 3.8% |
| 2-1 vs 1-2 (261 vs 226 matches) | 8.4% | 7.3% |
| 3-0 vs 0-3 (135 vs 54 matches) | 4.4% | 1.7% |
| 3-1 vs 1-3 (162 vs 89 matches) | 5.2% | 2.9% |
| 3-2 vs 2-3 (116 vs 61 matches) | 3.8% | 2.0% |
My reading is that away teams in Norway can keep games close but rarely run away with them. A narrow away win is a realistic scoreline. A comfortable away rout is a much rarer event than the bare quality gap might suggest.
Chapter 4Low-score shares swing sharply from one season to the next
The line chart follows three low-scoring outcomes season by season. The combined share of 1-0 or 0-1 jumped around a lot, from a low of 9.5% in 2021 to a high of 19.8% in 2024. 1-1 moved between 8.3% and 15.3%, and 0-0 between 2.9% and 8.3%.
Treat any single season with care. The latest season is incomplete in the records, and some years include play-off or championship-round fixtures. The bigger caveat is that these are league-wide figures. The real price of an exact score in a given match depends heavily on the two teams involved.
View the data: 1-0/0-1, 1-1 and 0-0 by eliteserien season
| 1-0 or 0-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 14.9% | 10.7% | 8.3% |
| 2013 | 19.0% | 12.4% | 5.4% |
| 2014 | 9.9% | 12.0% | 4.5% |
| 2015 | 12.4% | 12.8% | 3.3% |
| 2016 | 19.0% | 11.6% | 6.2% |
| 2017 | 15.3% | 12.0% | 6.2% |
| 2018 | 18.3% | 14.5% | 4.6% |
| 2019 | 11.6% | 15.3% | 8.3% |
| 2020 | 12.5% | 9.6% | 5.4% |
| 2021 | 9.5% | 14.1% | 5.8% |
| 2022 | 14.5% | 10.7% | 2.9% |
| 2023 | 15.3% | 8.3% | 5.4% |
| 2024 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 5.2% |
I use the full thirteen-season average as my anchor and the latest year only as a prompt to check whether something has changed. A strong single season is just as likely to be noise as a lasting new pattern.
Before you bet in this league
- Start from 1-11-1 is the most common Eliteserien score at 11.9%, a fair price of 8.38. If a quoted price is noticeably shorter than that in an evenly matched game, the market has already priced the draw fully.
- Respect the home leanEvery home-win scoreline beats its away mirror, with 3-0 at 4.4% against 1.7% for 0-3. Treat big away-win scores as long shots, even for a strong visiting side.
- Do not overrate 0-0A goalless draw finished just 5.5% of matches, a fair price of 18.19, and its seasonal share swung between 2.9% and 8.3%. Compare any 0-0 price with that baseline before assuming a tight game will stay scoreless.
Questions bettors ask
What is the most common correct score in the Eliteserien?
1-1, which finished 11.9% of the 3,092 matches analysed from 2012 to 2024. That gives a fair price of 8.38 before any bookmaker margin.
How often does an Eliteserien match end 0-0?
A goalless draw ended 5.5% of matches, or 170 games, which is a fair price of 18.19. It ranks below 1-0, 0-1, 2-0, 2-1, 1-2 and 2-2.
Do home teams win by bigger margins in Norway?
Yes. The home side scored four or more goals in 10.5% of matches against 4.5% for the away side, and 3-0 landed in 4.4% of games compared with 1.7% for 0-3.
Ethan Halloway here โ Correct Score is the market I keep coming back to, mostly because I find myself fascinated by how a 1-1 happens for very different reasons in different leagues.
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