How Often Does BTTS Fail in Argentina? 5,330 Primera Matches
Argentina is the hardest league in my files for both teams to score. The interesting part is how little the favourite's price changes that.
I keep coming back to the Argentine Primera because it breaks a habit most BTTS bettors bring from MLS or Brazil. In 5,330 matches, at least one team failed to score in 54.7%, which works out to a fair BTTS No price of 1.83. That is the highest blank rate of the six leagues I compared.
If you use my BTTS betting tips page, you will notice Argentina rarely shows up on the Yes side, and this study is the reason. Below I compare it with five other leagues, follow it year by year, and then split matches by the favourite's price. That last part is where I expected a clear pattern and found something much flatter.
Chapter 1Argentina blanks more often than any comparison league
This chart ranks six leagues by how often a match ends with at least one side on zero. Argentina leads at 54.7%, just ahead of Brazilian Série A at 52.3%. MLS sits at the other end on 42.5%, with J1, Liga MX and the Chinese Super League in between.
For a bettor, the gap between top and bottom matters more than the ranking. A No bet in Argentina and a No bet in MLS are close to opposite propositions, even though the market name is the same.
View the data: btts no rate in six leagues
| At least one team failed to score, % of matches, 2012–2024 | |
|---|---|
| Argentine Primera · 5,330 | 54.7% |
| Brazilian Série A · 4,849 | 52.3% |
| J1 League · 4,078 | 48.0% |
| Liga MX · 4,080 | 45.2% |
| Chinese Super League · 2,538 | 43.7% |
| MLS · 5,233 | 42.5% |
I read this as a style signal. South American top flights cluster at the low-scoring end, and Argentina is the most extreme of them, so I treat Yes there as the underdog side of the market by default.
Chapter 2Argentina trailed the pooled five-league BTTS rate every year
Here Argentina's BTTS Yes rate runs against MLS, Brazil, Liga MX, J1 and the CSL pooled. It finished below the pooled line in 13 of 13 calendar years. Its best year was 2022 at 50.1% and its worst was 2023 at 40.5%.
The gap widened sharply at the end. In 2024 Argentina came in at 42.3% against 57.3% for the five other leagues. Argentina's frequent changes of format mean yearly samples range from under 200 to almost 600 matches, so single seasons wobble more than the long-run figure.
View the data: btts by year: argentina vs five other leagues
| Argentine Primera | MLS, Brazil, Liga MX, J1, CSL pooled | |
|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 44.7% | 53.7% |
| 2013 | 46.2% | 54.6% |
| 2014 | 44.5% | 50.5% |
| 2015 | 48.6% | 53.0% |
| 2016 | 44.7% | 53.4% |
| 2017 | 43.8% | 52.6% |
| 2018 | 42.9% | 53.8% |
| 2019 | 44.8% | 54.0% |
| 2020 | 47.2% | 55.5% |
| 2021 | 48.4% | 49.9% |
| 2022 | 50.1% | 53.2% |
| 2023 | 40.5% | 54.2% |
| 2024 | 42.3% | 57.3% |
What I take from this is consistency. One odd season could be noise, but thirteen in a row on the same side of the line is a league trait, not a fluke.
Chapter 3Short favourites rarely draw 0-0 but still often keep a clean sheet
This chart splits each price band into four results: both scored, only the favourite scored, only the underdog scored, and 0-0. With a favourite under 1.50 (288 matches), only the favourite scored in 46.2% and the match finished 0-0 in just 3.8%. In the most even games, favourite at 2.60 or bigger (505 matches), 0-0 rose to 15.4%.
So the route to BTTS No changes completely across the bands. At short prices it comes from the favourite winning to nil. In tight games it comes from the underdog scoring alone, or from nobody scoring at all.
View the data: how argentine matches settle btts by favourite price
| BTTS yes | Only favourite scored | Only underdog scored | 0-0 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fav Under 1.50 | 43.8% | 46.2% | 6.2% | 3.8% |
| Fav 1.50–1.79 | 46.8% | 32.7% | 8.8% | 11.6% |
| Fav 1.80–2.19 | 42.8% | 32.4% | 12.4% | 12.4% |
| Fav 2.20–2.59 | 47.3% | 23.5% | 17.0% | 12.2% |
| Fav 2.60+ | 45.1% | 19.6% | 19.8% | 15.4% |
The surprise for me is the middle column of the chart. BTTS Yes stays in a narrow range in every band, from 42.8% to 47.3%. Price changes *how* No lands, not really *how often*.
Chapter 4Fair BTTS No odds barely move with the favourite's price
The table turns each band into a fair price for BTTS No. Every band lands between 1.75 and 1.90, with the 1.80–2.19 band the most blank-heavy at 57.2% across 1,774 matches. The under-1.50 band has the widest 95% range at ±5.7, so I trust its 56.2% less than the bigger bands.
The main limit is that the records hold no BTTS prices. These fair odds are a yardstick built from frequencies, not proof that a bookmaker ever offered more or less than this.
| Favourite odds | Matches | BTTS No | 95% range | Fair odds | 0-0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fav Under 1.50 | 288 | 56.2% | ±5.7 | 1.78 | 3.8% |
| Fav 1.50–1.79 | 904 | 53.2% | ±3.3 | 1.88 | 11.6% |
| Fav 1.80–2.19 | 1,774 | 57.2% | ±2.3 | 1.75 | 12.4% |
| Fav 2.20–2.59 | 1,859 | 52.7% | ±2.3 | 1.90 | 12.2% |
| Fav 2.60+ | 505 | 54.9% | ±4.3 | 1.82 | 15.4% |
My working rule is to start from the league figure of 1.83 and only adjust if the band gives me a reason. The table says those reasons are smaller than most people assume.
Before you bet in this league
- Start from NoAt least one team failed to score in 54.7% of Argentine Primera matches, fair odds 1.83. If a BTTS No price sits well under that, the market is asking more than the long-run rate supports.
- Heavy favourites win to nilWith a favourite under 1.50, only the favourite scored in 46.2% and 0-0 came in just 3.8%. No here relies on a clean sheet, so a shaky favourite defence matters more than usual.
- Even games bring stalematesWhen the favourite is 2.60 or bigger, 0-0 rises to 15.4%. Compare any correct-score or No price in these games with that higher goalless rate rather than the league average of 12.0%.
Questions bettors ask
How often does BTTS fail in the Argentine Primera?
In 5,330 matches, at least one team failed to score in 54.7%. That corresponds to fair BTTS No odds of 1.83.
Is Argentina a low-scoring league for BTTS?
Yes. Its BTTS rate was below the pooled rate of MLS, Brazil, Liga MX, J1 and the CSL in 13 of 13 calendar years, and in 2024 it was 42.3% against 57.3%.
How common are 0-0 draws in Argentine football?
Goalless draws made up 12.0% of Argentine Primera matches, fair odds 8.33. The rate climbs to 15.4% when the favourite is priced at 2.60 or bigger.
I'm a BTTS specialist who learned more from logging my own wrong predictions for a year than from any tipster column I ever read.
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