Brasileirão Betting Guide: Home Wins, Goals, Scores and Favourites
Thirteen years of Brasileirão results and prices show a tight, home-leaning league where 1-0 rules and long-priced favourites are the weak spot.
The Brasileirão has a reputation as a chaotic, end-to-end league. I wanted to see what the full-time record says, so this file covers 4,849 matches from 2012–2024 with results and 1X2 prices. The headline: home sides won 48.5%, 26.9% were drawn, and the average match produced 2.37 goals. That is a tighter, more home-leaning league than its reputation suggests.
The prices mostly know this, but not perfectly. Favourites won 51.3% of the time against 49.4% implied, and home wins beat their margin-free price. The scoreline data here also feeds my free correct score picks page, so the correct-score chapter is the one I lean on most.
Chapter 1Home advantage holds every season but swings by several points
This chart stacks the home, draw and away share for each calendar year. Home wins peak at 53.3% in 2016 and drop to 43.9% in 2017, the very next season. That shows how quickly a league year can change shape. Draws were highest in 2021 at 29.7%.
Matches per season: 290–380. 2024 runs to early October.
View the data: brasileirão: home, draw, away by season
| Home win | Draw | Away win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 48.2% | 27.6% | 24.2% |
| 2013 | 48.4% | 28.4% | 23.2% |
| 2014 | 51.8% | 24.2% | 23.9% |
| 2015 | 52.6% | 23.9% | 23.4% |
| 2016 | 53.3% | 24.8% | 21.9% |
| 2017 | 43.9% | 27.1% | 28.9% |
| 2018 | 53.2% | 28.9% | 17.9% |
| 2019 | 48.4% | 25.8% | 25.8% |
| 2020 | 45.0% | 28.4% | 26.6% |
| 2021 | 45.8% | 29.7% | 24.5% |
| 2022 | 44.2% | 28.4% | 27.4% |
| 2023 | 46.8% | 25.8% | 27.4% |
| 2024 | 49.7% | 25.5% | 24.8% |
For a bettor, that spread is the lesson: one season is not the league. The 2020 campaign ran into February 2021 because of the pandemic and is counted under 2020. The 2024 figures only run to early October, so I treat both ends of the chart with some care.
Chapter 2Home wins beat their price; away wins fall short
Home teams won 48.5% against 46.4% implied by the margin-free odds, which gives a fair price of 2.06. Away wins went the other way, landing 24.6% against 26.1% implied, a fair price of 4.06. The draw sat close to its price at 26.9% against 27.4%, fair odds 3.72.
On goals, over 2.5 landed in 43.0% of matches (fair odds 2.33), over 1.5 in 68.4% (fair 1.46) and over 3.5 in 20.6% (fair 4.84). Both teams scored in 47.7% (fair 2.10), and 8.8% finished 0-0.
| Market | Lands | 95% range | Fair odds | Odds imply |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win | 48.5% | ±1.4 | 2.06 | 46.4% |
| Draw | 26.9% | ±1.2 | 3.72 | 27.4% |
| Away win | 24.6% | ±1.2 | 4.06 | 26.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.4% | ±1.3 | 1.46 | – |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.0% | ±1.4 | 2.33 | – |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.6% | ±1.1 | 4.84 | – |
| Both teams score | 47.7% | ±1.4 | 2.10 | – |
| Goalless 0-0 | 8.8% | ±0.8 | 11.41 | – |
"Odds imply" = average margin-free 1X2 probability; no goals-market prices exist in the records.
The records hold no goals-market prices, so these figures are fair odds to compare a quote against. They do not prove the market is wrong. Under 2.5 is the more common outcome here, so I need a better-than-usual price before I back the over.
Chapter 3One-nil is the Brasileirão's signature scoreline, ahead of one-all
1-0 leads at 14.5% of matches, a fair price of 6.90. It is followed by 1-1 at 12.8% and 2-1 at 10.1%. The goalless draw sits fourth at 8.8%, just ahead of 2-0 at 8.5%. The ten most common scores together covered 82.7% of all matches, with 0-2 tenth at 4.1%.
Fair correct-score odds = 1 / share.
View the data: brasileirão: the 10 most common full-time scores
| % of 4,849 matches; home score first | |
|---|---|
| 1-0 | 14.5% |
| 1-1 | 12.8% |
| 2-1 | 10.1% |
| 0-0 | 8.8% |
| 2-0 | 8.5% |
| 0-1 | 8.3% |
| 1-2 | 6.3% |
| 2-2 | 4.7% |
| 3-0 | 4.6% |
| 0-2 | 4.1% |
When I build a correct-score view, I start from these low-scoring outcomes and need a specific reason to go higher. A 3-0 at 4.6% is a stretch, not a default.
Chapter 4Favourites outperform their price except at 2.40 or longer
Each row compares the implied and actual win rate for a band of favourite prices. Favourites under 1.40 won 74.7% against 71.5% implied across 300 games, but still returned −2.2% because the margin swallows the gap. The 2.00–2.39 band came closest to breaking even at −0.1%.
Only one band fell short of its price: favourites at 2.40 or longer. They won 35.9% against 36.8% implied over 884 games, an ROI of −8.8%.
ROI = flat 1-unit stakes on the favourite at the major-bookmaker price.
View the data: brasileirão favourites: priced vs actual win rate
| Odds imply | Won | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.40 (300 games · ROI −2.2%) | 71.5% | 74.7% | ±4.9 |
| 1.40–1.69 (1,099 games · ROI −2.3%) | 60.3% | 63.0% | ±2.9 |
| 1.70–1.99 (1,136 games · ROI −2.2%) | 50.9% | 53.1% | ±2.9 |
| 2.00–2.39 (1,421 games · ROI −0.1%) | 42.8% | 45.7% | ±2.6 |
| 2.40 or longer (884 games · ROI −8.8%) | 36.8% | 35.9% | ±3.2 |
Backing every favourite across 4,840 games returned −2.8% at the major-bookmaker price and +2.5% at the best available price. That best price is the highest quote in the market, identified after the fact. I read it as a reason to compare prices, not a return anyone should expect to collect.
Chapter 5Big clubs win more, but backing them blindly loses money
Palmeiras have the best record of the ten ever-present clubs, with 48.5% wins in 447 games and 60.3% at home. Fluminense are lowest at 39.6% from 485 matches. Atlético Mineiro have the strongest home record at 61.7%. Their games are also the most open, with 52.9% BTTS and 2.59 goals per game.
Backing a club in every match lost money for nine of the ten. Only Athletico Paranaense finished ahead, at +3.8%. São Paulo were worst at −9.0%, with Flamengo at −7.0% and Palmeiras at −6.8%.
| Club | Matches | Win % | Home win % | Goals/game | BTTS % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palmeiras | 447 | 48.5% | 60.3% | 2.52 | 47.9% | −6.8% |
| Flamengo | 485 | 47.6% | 58.0% | 2.57 | 49.9% | −7.0% |
| Atlético Mineiro | 484 | 46.3% | 61.7% | 2.59 | 52.9% | −4.1% |
| Grêmio | 447 | 45.0% | 60.3% | 2.33 | 44.3% | −3.1% |
| Internacional | 446 | 41.9% | 57.7% | 2.29 | 48.4% | −8.1% |
| São Paulo | 486 | 41.8% | 54.5% | 2.30 | 47.7% | −9.0% |
| Corinthians | 486 | 40.1% | 53.1% | 2.16 | 44.7% | −8.5% |
| Santos | 456 | 39.9% | 54.8% | 2.35 | 45.2% | −1.0% |
| Athletico Paranaense | 446 | 39.9% | 55.4% | 2.33 | 44.8% | +3.8% |
| Fluminense | 485 | 39.6% | 50.4% | 2.39 | 49.7% | −2.3% |
Goals/game = total goals in the club's matches. ROI at the major-bookmaker price, flat stakes.
Name value is already in the price, and the bigger clubs cost the most to follow. Past rates are not a betting system: prices move, and every real bet carries a bookmaker margin. Corinthians, at 2.16 goals per game, are the club I would look at first for low-scoring angles.
Before you bet in this league
- Respect the home sideHome teams won 48.5% against 46.4% implied, while away wins landed 24.6% against 26.1% implied. Be wary of short away prices that rely on reputation alone.
- Overs need a priceOver 2.5 landed only 43.0% of the time, a fair price of 2.33. Compare any over quote with that before backing goals.
- Long-priced favourites disappointFavourites at 2.40 or longer were the only band to fall short of their price, winning 35.9% against 36.8% implied for an ROI of −8.8%. Shorter bands beat their implied rates but still lost after the margin.
Questions bettors ask
What is the most common score in the Brasileirão?
1-0 is the most common full-time score, at 14.5% of 4,849 matches, a fair price of 6.90. It is followed by 1-1 at 12.8% and 2-1 at 10.1%.
How often do both teams score in the Brasileirão?
Both teams scored in 47.7% of matches, which gives fair odds of 2.10. Atlético Mineiro matches had the highest rate among the ten ever-present clubs, at 52.9%.
Do favourites win often in the Brasileirão?
Favourites won 51.3% of 4,840 matches against 49.4% implied by the odds. Backing all of them at the major-bookmaker price still returned −2.8%.
Rowan Maddox here. I don't tie myself to one market — some weeks it's a goal total, some weeks the result, some weeks both teams scoring. The fixture decides where the edge is, not my habit.
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