Ekstraklasa Over/Under by Club: Poland’s Goal-Shy and Goal-Heavy Teams
Every complete Ekstraklasa season in the records, club by club: who drags matches under 2.5, who pushes them over, and how much home and away really matter.
The Ekstraklasa sits almost exactly on the 2.5 line. Of 3,470 league matches, 50.9% finished under 2.5 goals, a fair price of 1.96, with 2.63 goals per match. That makes it a league where the club matters more than the competition. A coin-flip average hides teams that lean hard one way.
At the top, Warta Poznań matches went under 66.7% of the time. At the bottom, Jagiellonia Białystok matches managed only 45.6%. If you want the daily angle, my over under betting tips page is where I apply this fixture by fixture. Here I'm looking at the long-run habits behind those prices.
Chapter 1Warta Poznań stand alone as Poland's most under-heavy club
This chart ranks the 23 clubs with 100 or more league matches and shows the top 8 and bottom 8. Warta Poznań are the clear outlier at 66.7%. The next club, Radomiak, sits at 56.9%, a big gap for a ranking that otherwise moves in small steps.
Below Warta the under side is crowded with Piast Gliwice, Stal Mielec, Cracovia and Korona Kielce, all in the mid-fifties. The over end is just as tight, running from Widzew Łódź down to Jagiellonia Białystok at 45.6%.
League average: 50.9% across 3,470 matches.
View the data: ekstraklasa: under 2.5 rate by club
| Clubs with 100+ matches (top 8 and bottom 8) | |
|---|---|
| Warta Poznań | 66.7% |
| Radomiak | 56.9% |
| Piast Gliwice | 55.8% |
| Stal Mielec | 55.3% |
| Cracovia | 54.5% |
| Korona Kielce | 54.3% |
| Bruk-Bet Termalica | 53.8% |
| Śląsk Wrocław | 53.2% |
| Widzew Łódź | 48.9% |
| Wisła Kraków | 48.4% |
| Ruch Chorzów | 47.6% |
| Podbeskidzie | 46.8% |
| Raków Częstochowa | 46.7% |
| Legia Warsaw | 46.3% |
| Wisła Płock | 45.9% |
| Jagiellonia Białystok | 45.6% |
What I take from it is that most Ekstraklasa clubs drift only a few points from the league average. Warta are the one team where the lean is strong enough to change how I read a fixture before I've looked at anything else.
Chapter 2Strong attacks, not leaky defences, drive the over 2.5 clubs
The table explains why each club lands where it does. Warta scored 1.05 and conceded 1.12 per match, so neither end produced much. Bruk-Bet Termalica conceded 1.57 but scored only 1.03, and still finished on the under side at 53.8%. A weak defence is not enough to push matches over if your own attack is blunt.
The over end tells a different story. Legia Warsaw conceded just 0.97 per match yet sit low on unders because they scored 1.71. Raków Częstochowa are similar, scoring 1.62 and conceding 1.03. In this league the over clubs tend to be the ones dominating games, not the ones getting battered.
| Club | Matches | Scored | Conceded | Under 2.5 | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warta Poznań | 132 | 1.05 | 1.12 | 66.7% | 1.50 |
| Radomiak | 102 | 1.15 | 1.36 | 56.9% | 1.76 |
| Piast Gliwice | 421 | 1.28 | 1.19 | 55.8% | 1.79 |
| Stal Mielec | 132 | 1.12 | 1.42 | 55.3% | 1.81 |
| Cracovia | 391 | 1.29 | 1.26 | 54.5% | 1.84 |
| Korona Kielce | 357 | 1.14 | 1.42 | 54.3% | 1.84 |
| Bruk-Bet Termalica | 145 | 1.03 | 1.57 | 53.8% | 1.86 |
| Śląsk Wrocław | 421 | 1.30 | 1.26 | 53.2% | 1.88 |
| Widzew Łódź | 135 | 1.10 | 1.43 | 48.9% | 2.05 |
| Wisła Kraków | 353 | 1.38 | 1.38 | 48.4% | 2.06 |
| Ruch Chorzów | 212 | 1.17 | 1.50 | 47.6% | 2.10 |
| Podbeskidzie | 171 | 1.16 | 1.58 | 46.8% | 2.14 |
| Raków Częstochowa | 169 | 1.62 | 1.03 | 46.7% | 2.14 |
| Legia Warsaw | 421 | 1.71 | 0.97 | 46.3% | 2.16 |
| Wisła Płock | 246 | 1.31 | 1.46 | 45.9% | 2.18 |
| Jagiellonia Białystok | 421 | 1.47 | 1.39 | 45.6% | 2.19 |
The fair odds column runs from 1.50 for Warta to 2.19 for Jagiellonia. Those are break-even prices from frequencies, not quoted odds. I use them as a yardstick: if an under price on a Piast Gliwice match is shorter than 1.79, the long-run record says it is not paying enough.
Chapter 3Home and away barely shift the line for most big clubs
Here I compare home and away under rates for the ten clubs with the most league matches. Most dots sit close together. Zagłębie Lubin are the exception, with unders at 44.8% at home against 53.6% away, so their home matches lean towards goals.
Górnik Zabrze run the other way, going under 51.3% at home and 47.7% away. Most clubs on the chart show more unders away from home, which fits the idea that travelling sides take fewer risks.
View the data: under 2.5 in home vs away matches
| Home matches | Away matches | |
|---|---|---|
| Zagłębie Lubin (192 home · 192 away) | 44.8% | 53.6% |
| Pogoń Szczecin (210 home · 211 away) | 49.5% | 54.5% |
| Legia Warsaw (214 home · 207 away) | 44.4% | 48.3% |
| Cracovia (196 home · 195 away) | 53.1% | 55.9% |
| Lech Poznań (212 home · 209 away) | 49.5% | 52.2% |
| Jagiellonia Białystok (212 home · 209 away) | 44.3% | 46.9% |
| Lechia Gdańsk (192 home · 195 away) | 51.0% | 53.3% |
| Śląsk Wrocław (212 home · 209 away) | 52.8% | 53.6% |
| Piast Gliwice (211 home · 210 away) | 56.4% | 55.2% |
| Górnik Zabrze (191 home · 193 away) | 51.3% | 47.7% |
The caveat that matters most is this one. Club figures mix many squads and coaches, and a sample of 150 to 300 matches carries roughly ±6 to ±8 points of uncertainty. Most of these home-away gaps sit inside that noise, so I treat the split as a tiebreaker rather than a reason to bet.
Chapter 4Season-to-season swings are real but rarely last
The league average moves around. The most under-heavy season was 2022/23 at 55.2%, and the least was 2016/17 at 45.6%. Over 3.5 goals landed in 27.4% of all matches, peaking at 31.1% in 2018/19 and dropping to 22.5% in 2022/23.
There is no steady trend in either direction. A high-scoring season tends to be followed by a quieter one, so I wouldn't assume this season will look like the last.
View the data: ekstraklasa: under and over 2.5 by season
| Under 2.5 | Over 3.5 | |
|---|---|---|
| 2012/13 | 52.5% | 22.9% |
| 2013/14 | 51.0% | 29.1% |
| 2014/15 | 49.0% | 26.7% |
| 2015/16 | 54.7% | 28.0% |
| 2016/17 | 45.6% | 28.0% |
| 2017/18 | 49.3% | 29.4% |
| 2018/19 | 48.0% | 31.1% |
| 2019/20 | 50.4% | 25.8% |
| 2020/21 | 53.7% | 25.7% |
| 2021/22 | 50.3% | 29.1% |
| 2022/23 | 55.2% | 22.5% |
| 2023/24 | 51.3% | 29.4% |
Until 2019/20 the league split into championship and relegation groups after 30 rounds, and those matches are included here. Late-season fixtures in that format had their own stakes, which is one more reason to check context before trusting a seasonal number.
Before you bet in this league
- Start from the coin flipWith 50.9% of matches under 2.5 and a fair price of 1.96, the Ekstraklasa has no built-in lean. Any value has to come from the clubs involved, not the league.
- Dominant sides mean goalsLegia Warsaw and Raków Częstochowa sit on the over side because they score heavily, not because they concede. Don't assume a strong defence points to an under in this league.
- Compare prices with fair oddsFair under prices run from 1.50 for Warta Poznań to 2.19 for Jagiellonia Białystok. If a quoted price is shorter than the club's fair figure, the long-run record does not support it.
Questions bettors ask
How often do Ekstraklasa matches go under 2.5 goals?
Across 3,470 league matches, 50.9% finished under 2.5 goals, which works out at fair odds of 1.96. The average was 2.63 goals per match.
Which Ekstraklasa club has the most under 2.5 matches?
Warta Poznań, with 66.7% of their 132 league matches going under 2.5. They scored 1.05 and conceded 1.12 per match.
Which Ekstraklasa team is best for over 2.5 goals?
Jagiellonia Białystok had the lowest under 2.5 rate at 45.6% of 421 matches, so their games went over most often. Wisła Płock and Legia Warsaw were close behind at 45.9% and 46.3%.
I'm Marcus Whitfield, and I write about Over/Under markets because that's where I've spent three years stress-testing my own assumptions about how matches actually score.
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