Rosenborg and Molde vs the Odds: Norway's Old Powers Tested
Across 768 club-matches, the market underrated both Norwegian giants, but only Molde kept beating its odds once Rosenborg's decline set in.
Rosenborg and Molde are the two Norwegian names every casual bettor recognises, and recognition usually gets priced in. So I went through 768 club-matches of Eliteserien results and 1X2 prices, from 2012 to early October 2024, to test a simple question. Did the market rate these clubs correctly, and did backing either of them actually pay?
Short answer: both clubs won more often than their prices implied, but only Molde turned that into a profit across the board. Backing Molde in every match returned +4.9% at the major-bookmaker price, while Rosenborg returned −1.8%. Rosenborg's edge belonged to an era that has passed, while Molde's has, if anything, grown. My football 1X2 predictions page is where I apply this kind of work fixture by fixture, but here the job is the long view.
Chapter 1Both clubs beat their prices, but only Molde paid overall
The table is the whole study in one place. Rosenborg won 54.9% of 384 matches against a margin-free implied 51.7%, and Molde won 59.1% against 52.9%. Molde's gap is wider, and it shows in the returns: +4.9% backing them blind, and +6.3% as favourite. Rosenborg only crept into profit as favourite, at +1.8%.
The last column uses the best price available across bookmakers in the records. That lifts Rosenborg to +6.6% and Molde to +11.4% as favourite. I treat that as a ceiling rather than a promise, because it assumes you held accounts everywhere and got on at the top price every time, which few of us manage.
| Club | Matches | Won | Priced | ROI all | ROI as fav | ROI as fav, best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rosenborg | 384 | 54.9% | 51.7% | −1.8% | +1.8% | +6.6% |
| Molde | 384 | 59.1% | 52.9% | +4.9% | +6.3% | +11.4% |
What this tells me is that the market's view of these two was not lazy, but it was slow. The interesting part is when and how each club drifted away from its price.
Chapter 2Rosenborg's edge died with its dominant era, and the market followed
Rosenborg's line is a story of two halves. From 2012 to 2018 the club won 61.9% of 210 matches against a priced 56.6%. It peaked at 70.0% in both 2015 and 2016, when the odds implied 61.8% and 63.0%. Flat stakes in that spell returned +3.8%.
From 2019 to 2024 the win rate fell to 46.6% of 174 matches, priced at 45.8%, and the return swung to −8.7%. By 2023 Rosenborg won 36.7% of league matches against an implied chance of 37.1%, so the market had caught up completely.
View the data: rosenborg: league win rate vs the odds
| Won | Priced | |
|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 50.0% | 52.0% |
| 2013 | 60.0% | 54.6% |
| 2014 | 60.0% | 48.5% |
| 2015 | 70.0% | 61.8% |
| 2016 | 70.0% | 63.0% |
| 2017 | 60.0% | 60.2% |
| 2018 | 63.3% | 55.9% |
| 2019 | 46.7% | 49.8% |
| 2020 | 50.0% | 50.8% |
| 2021 | 43.3% | 46.9% |
| 2022 | 53.3% | 48.4% |
| 2023 | 36.7% | 37.1% |
| 2024* | 50.0% | 40.7% |
For me this is reputation lag running in reverse. Once bettors stopped paying for the badge, the prices became honest, and an honest price on a declining side leaves nothing on the table. A word of caution on any single year: each season rests on 30 matches, so swings like these are noisy and I would not lean on one dot in the chart.
Chapter 3Molde kept outrunning its odds after Rosenborg faded
Molde's chart is choppier early on, with seasons like 2013 and 2016 well under the price, but the later years tilt firmly the other way. From 2012 to 2018 Molde won 54.8% of 210 matches against 50.9% priced. From 2019 to 2024 it won 64.4% of 174 against 55.4%, so the gap between performance and price widened.
The standout is 2022, with 83.3% won against an implied 54.5% and a flat-stake return of +56.8%. That is the best complete season in the records. It is also the sort of outlier that makes the long-run figure look better than a typical year.
View the data: molde: league win rate vs the odds
| Won | Priced | |
|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 63.3% | 50.3% |
| 2013 | 40.0% | 47.5% |
| 2014 | 73.3% | 58.4% |
| 2015 | 50.0% | 57.5% |
| 2016 | 43.3% | 49.9% |
| 2017 | 53.3% | 44.2% |
| 2018 | 60.0% | 48.8% |
| 2019 | 70.0% | 52.2% |
| 2020 | 66.7% | 55.7% |
| 2021 | 60.0% | 57.9% |
| 2022 | 83.3% | 54.5% |
| 2023 | 50.0% | 57.2% |
| 2024* | 54.2% | 54.3% |
My read is that the market kept pricing Molde as one of a pack while they played like the best-organised side in the league. It has corrected at times, as 2023 showed, but not consistently.
Chapter 4Molde paid equally home and away, Rosenborg only at home
Splitting the favourite bets by venue sharpens the contrast. Molde returned +6.3% as home favourite over 190 matches and +6.3% as away favourite over 137, the same figure either way. Rosenborg returned +4.1% at home over 187 matches but −1.4% away over 135.
View the data: backing them as favourite: home vs away
| Rosenborg | Molde | |
|---|---|---|
| Home favourite | +4.1% | +6.3% |
| Away favourite | −1.4% | +6.3% |
That away number matters to me because away favourites are where the matchup does the most work. A side that can control games on the road earns a short price, but Rosenborg as away favourite has too often been priced on what they used to be.
Before you bet in this league
- Ignore the old badgeRosenborg returned −8.7% flat-stake from 2019 to 2024 while priced almost exactly in line with their results. Don't assume the name carries value, and check the price against current output.
- Molde as favouriteMolde returned +6.3% as favourite both home and away over the full period. That is a record of the past, not a forecast, so compare the price with how the side is actually playing instead of backing it blind.
- Shop for the priceThe gap between +6.3% and +11.4% for Molde as favourite comes purely from taking the best available price. On short-priced favourites, small differences in odds decide whether a long-run edge survives.
Questions bettors ask
Has backing Molde in Eliteserien been profitable?
In the records, backing Molde in every league match returned +4.9% at a major bookmaker's price, and +6.3% when they were favourite. Past returns are no promise of future ones.
Is Rosenborg still overrated by the bookmakers?
Not on this evidence. In 2023 Rosenborg won 36.7% of league matches against an implied 37.1%, so the market had their decline priced almost exactly.
Should I back Rosenborg as an away favourite?
As away favourite Rosenborg returned −1.4% over 135 matches, compared with +4.1% as home favourite over 187. The away record is clearly the weaker of the two.
Oliver Brennan, 1X2 writer. Three years of going through fixtures one by one and learning the hard way that recent form alone doesn't tell you who's going to win.
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