Liga MX Betting Guide: Results, Goals and Favourites in One File
Twelve seasons of Liga MX results and 1X2 prices show a league that is more orderly than its reputation, with goal lines near evens and favourites priced tightly.
Liga MX has a reputation as a league where anything can happen, so I wanted to see what 3,979 matches across 12 seasons actually say about results, goals, both-teams-to-score, correct scores and favourites. The short answer is that it is more orderly than its reputation, and the 1X2 market prices it closely.
Home teams won 44.1%, draws landed 27.6% and matches averaged 2.64 goals. Over 2.5 was almost exactly a coin toss at 49.6%. Favourites won 48.0% of the time, slightly more than their prices implied, though not by enough to clear a major bookmaker's margin. If you use my both teams to score today page, the goals and BTTS chapters below are the base rates I check every price against.
Chapter 1Home advantage holds steady through every Liga MX season
The first chart splits each July–June season into home wins, draws and away wins. The home share never wanders far. The high was 48.2% in 2020/21 and the low was 40.1% the very next season, 2021/22, both from 342 matches. Draws peaked at 32.0% in 2013/14 and have not reached that level since.
There is one structural point to keep in mind before reading too much into any single bar. Each season holds two tournaments, the Apertura and the Clausura, and their Liguilla play-off matches are included. The 2019/20 season is short because the Clausura 2020 was abandoned during the pandemic.
Matches per season: 275–342.
View the data: liga mx: home, draw, away by season
| Home win | Draw | Away win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2012/13 | 42.8% | 28.4% | 28.7% |
| 2013/14 | 41.9% | 32.0% | 26.0% |
| 2014/15 | 44.3% | 29.6% | 26.0% |
| 2015/16 | 44.6% | 24.6% | 30.8% |
| 2016/17 | 44.6% | 29.3% | 26.0% |
| 2017/18 | 42.2% | 29.0% | 28.7% |
| 2018/19 | 47.9% | 24.6% | 27.5% |
| 2019/20 | 44.4% | 24.0% | 31.6% |
| 2020/21 | 48.2% | 25.1% | 26.6% |
| 2021/22 | 40.1% | 30.1% | 29.8% |
| 2022/23 | 43.0% | 27.8% | 29.2% |
| 2023/24 | 45.3% | 26.2% | 28.5% |
Season sizes run 275–342 matches, so I treat one odd year as noise rather than a trend. Home advantage never disappears in any of these seasons, and that is the baseline I start from.
Chapter 2Over 2.5 goals in Liga MX is a genuine coin toss
This table gives the base rate for each market across all 3,979 matches, with a fair price of 1 divided by the hit rate. Over 2.5 goals landed 49.6% of the time, which is a fair price of 2.01. Over 1.5 landed 74.2% (1.35), over 3.5 landed 27.4% (3.65) and both teams scored in 54.8% (1.82). A 0-0 turned up in only 7.6% of matches, a fair 13.18.
The 1X2 rows are the striking part. The draw landed 27.6% against an implied 27.3%, home wins landed 44.1% against 44.0%, and away wins landed slightly less often than priced. The market knows this league.
| Market | Lands | 95% range | Fair odds | Odds imply |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win | 44.1% | ±1.5 | 2.27 | 44.0% |
| Draw | 27.6% | ±1.4 | 3.62 | 27.3% |
| Away win | 28.3% | ±1.4 | 3.54 | 28.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.2% | ±1.4 | 1.35 | – |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.6% | ±1.6 | 2.01 | – |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.4% | ±1.4 | 3.65 | – |
| Both teams score | 54.8% | ±1.5 | 1.82 | – |
| Goalless 0-0 | 7.6% | ±0.8 | 13.18 | – |
"Odds imply" = average margin-free 1X2 probability; no goals-market prices exist in the records.
For me, the BTTS row matters most. With a 95% range of ±1.5 points around 54.8%, anything much shorter than 1.82 on a generic Liga MX match is mostly margin rather than football.
Chapter 3One-all is the single most likely Liga MX scoreline
The 1-1 bar stands clear at 13.6% of matches, which is a fair correct-score price of 7.35. It is followed by 1-0 at 10.2% and 2-1 at 9.3%. Goalless draws sit fifth at 7.6%, behind 0-1 at 8%.
The ten most common scores together cover 76.8% of all matches, and the tenth is 0-2 at 4.0%. Low-scoring, one-goal-margin results dominate, which fits a league where goal lines sit near evens.
Fair correct-score odds = 1 / share.
View the data: liga mx: the 10 most common full-time scores
| % of 3,979 matches; home score first | |
|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.6% |
| 1-0 | 10.2% |
| 2-1 | 9.3% |
| 0-1 | 8.0% |
| 0-0 | 7.6% |
| 1-2 | 7.2% |
| 2-0 | 7.0% |
| 2-2 | 5.5% |
| 3-1 | 4.4% |
| 0-2 | 4.0% |
I would not build correct-score bets on these shares alone, because even the top score misses most of the time. What they give me is a sanity check: a 1-1 price well below 7.35 needs a match-specific reason behind it.
Chapter 4Favourites edge their prices but rarely beat the margin
Across 3,972 games, favourites won 48.0% against 46.9% implied by the odds. That is a small edge in the football, but backing every one returned −4.9% at the major-bookmaker price and +0.9% at the best available price.
The bands tell the detail. Favourites under 1.40 won 74.0% against 70.2% implied, but that comes from just 100 games and still returned −1.7%. The 1.70–1.99 band won 53.4%, a few points above its price, for −1.5%. The 2.40 or longer band was the only one to fall short of its price, at 36.5% against 37.0% from 759 games, for −8.2%.
ROI = flat 1-unit stakes on the favourite at the major-bookmaker price.
View the data: liga mx favourites: priced vs actual win rate
| Odds imply | Won | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.40 (100 games · ROI −1.7%) | 70.2% | 74.0% | ±8.6 |
| 1.40–1.69 (659 games · ROI −6.8%) | 59.9% | 59.9% | ±3.7 |
| 1.70–1.99 (961 games · ROI −1.5%) | 50.3% | 53.4% | ±3.2 |
| 2.00–2.39 (1,493 games · ROI −4.9%) | 42.5% | 43.5% | ±2.5 |
| 2.40 or longer (759 games · ROI −8.2%) | 37.0% | 36.5% | ±3.4 |
My read is that the weakest favourites are where the price is most generous to the bookmaker. Shorter prices are fairer, but fair is not the same as profitable.
Chapter 5Club América stands alone while Santos Laguna punishes backers
Among the ten clubs with the most matches, Club América won 50.2% of 496 games, including 57.3% at home. Backing them every game returned +0.9%, the best of the group. Chivas Guadalajara had the lowest win rate at 33.8% from 441 matches, with only 37.7% at home.
Santos Laguna are the opposite case to América for backers. They returned −12.1%, the worst of the ten, yet their matches had the highest BTTS rate at 60.4% and the most goals at 2.86 per game. Toluca also scraped a +0.4% return alongside a 58.8% BTTS rate.
| Club | Matches | Win % | Home win % | Goals/game | BTTS % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club América | 496 | 50.2% | 57.3% | 2.69 | 53.4% | +0.9% |
| Tigres UANL | 482 | 45.0% | 52.1% | 2.45 | 49.4% | −9.2% |
| Monterrey | 463 | 44.3% | 54.3% | 2.67 | 56.4% | −11.5% |
| León | 457 | 43.5% | 52.4% | 2.81 | 57.1% | −4.0% |
| Cruz Azul | 448 | 41.7% | 49.6% | 2.47 | 52.5% | −8.2% |
| Pachuca | 449 | 40.5% | 50.4% | 2.72 | 56.1% | −6.1% |
| Toluca | 454 | 40.3% | 52.0% | 2.74 | 58.8% | +0.4% |
| Santos Laguna | 452 | 38.1% | 52.4% | 2.86 | 60.4% | −12.1% |
| Pumas UNAM | 441 | 34.2% | 42.9% | 2.64 | 54.0% | −7.5% |
| Chivas Guadalajara | 441 | 33.8% | 37.7% | 2.33 | 53.5% | −10.5% |
Goals/game = total goals in the club's matches. ROI at the major-bookmaker price, flat stakes.
The lesson I take is that entertaining sides and profitable sides are not the same thing. A Santos match is a goals question far more often than a result question.
Before you bet in this league
- Goal lines near evensOver 2.5 landed 49.6% across the league, a fair 2.01, so treat it as a coin toss by default. Only move off that view with a match-specific reason, and compare any price you see with that figure.
- Long favourites cost mostFavourites at 2.40 or longer won 36.5% against 37.0% implied and returned −8.2%. Even the strongest band, under 1.40, still lost 1.7% at the major-bookmaker price.
- Margin decides the resultBacking all favourites returned −4.9% at the major-bookmaker price against +0.9% at the best quoted price. That best price is the highest quote recorded, not something you can count on getting every time, so read it as evidence that the margin matters more than the picks. Past rates are not a system.
Questions bettors ask
How often do both teams score in Liga MX?
Both teams scored in 54.8% of 3,979 Liga MX matches, which works out to a fair price of 1.82. Santos Laguna matches were highest among the ever-present clubs at 60.4%.
What is the most common score in Liga MX?
1-1 is the most common, at 13.6% of matches and a fair price of 7.35. It is followed by 1-0 at 10.2% and 2-1 at 9.3%.
How often do home teams win in Liga MX?
Home teams won 44.1% of matches, with 27.6% drawn and 28.3% won by the away side. The best single season for home sides was 2020/21 at 48.2%.
Rowan Maddox here. I don't tie myself to one market — some weeks it's a goal total, some weeks the result, some weeks both teams scoring. The fixture decides where the edge is, not my habit.
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