Liga MX Favourites by Odds: Apertura vs Clausura Win Rates
Thirteen years of Liga MX regular-season prices show favourites slightly underpriced overall, with the Clausura doing more of the work than the Apertura.
Liga MX has a reputation for chaos: parity, travel, altitude and a short-tournament format that keeps most of the table in contention. That reputation should make favourites poor value. I wanted to test it by setting how often favourites actually won against how often the prices said they would, across 3,728 regular-season matches with 1X2 odds.
The headline answer is that the market slightly underrates them. Favourites won 48.2% of the time against a margin-free implied 47.1%, though backing every one still returned −4.9% at a major bookmaker. This study uses the same comparison of price against outcome that sits behind my match result tips, and the split between the Apertura and the Clausura turned out to be the most interesting part.
Chapter 1Most Liga MX price bands win slightly more than priced
Each row compares the margin-free implied win rate with the actual win rate for a band of favourite prices. In four of the five bands the favourite won at least as often as priced. The shortest favourites, under 1.40, won 75.2% of 105 matches against a priced 70.2%, and the 1.70–1.99 and 2.00–2.29 bands both outran their prices too.
The exception is the 2.30+ band, where favourites won 36.8% of 1,043 matches against a priced 37.9%. That is where the label 'favourite' means the least, and in this league it seems to mean slightly less than the market thinks.
Bars show 95% range of the actual win rate.
View the data: liga mx favourites: priced vs actual win rate
| Priced | Actually won | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.40 (105 matches) | 70.2% | 75.2% | ±8.3 |
| 1.40–1.69 (628 matches) | 60.0% | 60.2% | ±3.8 |
| 1.70–1.99 (891 matches) | 50.4% | 52.7% | ±3.3 |
| 2.00–2.29 (1,054 matches) | 43.4% | 45.8% | ±3 |
| 2.30+ (1,043 matches) | 37.9% | 36.8% | ±2.9 |
The bars matter. The under-1.40 band is small, so its range is wide, and the middle-band gaps sit inside their ranges as well. I read this as a gentle lean, not a proven edge.
Chapter 2Favourite returns depend heavily on which price you take
Win rates only matter once the price is paid. At the major bookmaker, no band made money. Under 1.40 broke even at 0.0%, while the 2.30+ band was worst at −9.5% and the 1.40–1.69 band lost −6.6%, despite winning almost exactly as often as priced.
At the best available price the picture flips in three bands: +4.4% under 1.40, +2.8% at 1.70–1.99 and +4.6% at 2.00–2.29. Across every favourite, the best price returned +0.9% against −4.9% at the major bookmaker.
View the data: backing every liga mx favourite: return by price
| Major bookmaker | Best price | |
|---|---|---|
| Under 1.40 | 0.0% | +4.4% |
| 1.40–1.69 | −6.6% | −1.9% |
| 1.70–1.99 | −2.7% | +2.8% |
| 2.00–2.29 | −1.7% | +4.6% |
| 2.30+ | −9.5% | −3.2% |
| All favourites | −4.9% | +0.9% |
The main caveat sits here. Best-available prices are the top quote across many books at one moment, and almost nobody gets all of them, so those positive figures flatter what a real bettor would have banked. What I take from them is that price shopping is the difference between a slow leak and roughly breaking even.
Chapter 3Clausura favourites beat their prices; Apertura favourites mostly did not
This is the split I came for. In the Apertura, home favourites won 48.7% of 1,461 matches against an implied 49.0%, a gap of −0.3 points, and returned −7.9%. Away favourites in the Apertura won 42.7% against 41.9%, which is barely ahead of the price.
The Clausura looks different on both sides. Home favourites won 50.8% against 48.6%, a +2.2 gap, and away favourites won 45.1% against 42.2%, a +2.9 gap. Clausura away favourites returned −0.9%, the best of the four groups at the major bookmaker.
| Tournament / favourite | Matches | Won | Priced | Gap (pts) | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apertura home fav | 1,461 | 48.7% | 49.0% | −0.3 | −7.9% |
| Apertura away fav | 490 | 42.7% | 41.9% | +0.8 | −5.5% |
| Clausura home fav | 1,335 | 50.8% | 48.6% | +2.2 | −2.7% |
| Clausura away fav | 435 | 45.1% | 42.2% | +2.9 | −0.9% |
Overall, Apertura favourites won 47.2% of 1,951 matches and Clausura favourites 49.4% of 1,770. I don't have a tidy cause for this. Squads settling after the summer window is my working guess, but the data shows the pattern, not the reason.
Chapter 4Favourite win rates swing by year around a steady price
The implied line barely moves while the actual line wanders. In 2017 favourites won just 42.2% against an implied 46.8%, and in 2014 they won 43.5% against 45.5%. In 2019 they won 52.2% against 48.9%, and in 2024 they reached 54.7% against 50.4%.
Some years are partial: 2012 has only the Apertura, the 2020 Clausura was abandoned after 10 rounds, and 2024 runs only to early October. A single season tells you very little in a league this volatile.
2012 has only the Apertura; the 2020 Clausura was abandoned after 10 rounds; 2024 runs to early October.
View the data: liga mx favourite win rate by year
| Actual | Implied | |
|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 47.7% | 46.3% |
| 2013 | 46.9% | 46.5% |
| 2014 | 43.5% | 45.5% |
| 2015 | 49.0% | 45.0% |
| 2016 | 46.7% | 47.2% |
| 2017 | 42.2% | 46.8% |
| 2018 | 48.2% | 46.8% |
| 2019 | 52.2% | 48.9% |
| 2020 | 50.6% | 46.6% |
| 2021 | 46.7% | 46.9% |
| 2022 | 47.5% | 45.9% |
| 2023 | 52.0% | 49.2% |
| 2024 | 54.7% | 50.4% |
Recent seasons have leaned towards favourites, but I've seen enough reversals on this chart not to build a staking plan on that trend alone.
Before you bet in this league
- Price shopping comes firstBacking every favourite returned −4.9% at the major bookmaker but +0.9% at the best price. If you only take one quote, you are starting from a loss.
- Respect the Clausura splitClausura favourites won 49.4% against 47.2% in the Apertura, and both Clausura groups beat their implied rates. Apertura home favourites returned −7.9%, the weakest group in the table.
- Be wary above 2.30Favourites priced 2.30+ won 36.8% against a priced 37.9% and returned −9.5% at the major bookmaker. At those prices, treat the fixture as close to a coin flip, not a favourite spot.
Questions bettors ask
How often do Liga MX favourites win?
Across 3,721 regular-season matches with a clear favourite, the favourite won 48.2% of the time. The margin-free price implied 47.1%.
Do favourites win more often in the Apertura or the Clausura?
The Clausura. Favourites won 49.4% of 1,770 Clausura matches against 47.2% of 1,951 Apertura matches, and Clausura away favourites beat their implied rate by +2.9 points.
Is backing every Liga MX favourite profitable?
Not at a single bookmaker: flat stakes returned −4.9% at the major bookmaker. The best available price showed +0.9%, but few bettors could actually get every one of those quotes.
I'm Lucas Pemberton, a football betting writer focused on 1X2 markets, turning weekend match-watching habits into structured analysis over the past two years.
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