MLS Draws: How Often 1-1, 0-0 and 2-2 Land, With Fair Odds
Across 5,233 MLS matches, a quarter were drawn and 1-1 was the most common draw score by a distance. The draw price changes how often 0-0 turns up.
When an MLS match ends level, what does the scoreboard usually say? It is a simple question, but it decides a lot in the correct score market, where picking the draw is only half the job. I went through MLS from 2012–2024, with records running to October 2024, covering 5,233 matches across regular season and play-offs.
The headline answer is steady: 25.2% of matches were drawn, and 43.0% of those draws finished 1-1. 0-0 and 2-2 were close to level behind it. The more interesting part is how the mix of draw scores tilts as the draw price moves, and that is what I lean on when I build my correct score betting tips page.
Chapter 1Shorter draw prices bring more 0-0s, while 1-1 holds steady
This chart splits the 1,318 MLS draws by the draw price before kick-off. With the draw under 3.40, 28.5% of draws were 0-0 and 42.8% were 1-1. Push the draw out to 4.30 or bigger and 0-0 drops to 19.7% of draws, while 2-2 takes 26.2% and the 3-3 or higher slice grows noticeably.
View the data: which score mls draws finish on
| 0-0 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 3-3 or higher | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.40 (362 draws) | 28.5% | 42.8% | 24.3% | 4.4% |
| 3.40–3.59 (324 draws) | 27.5% | 41.7% | 25.3% | 5.6% |
| 3.60–3.89 (336 draws) | 25.0% | 44.3% | 24.1% | 6.5% |
| 3.90–4.29 (174 draws) | 21.8% | 43.1% | 27.0% | 8.0% |
| 4.30+ (122 draws) | 19.7% | 43.4% | 26.2% | 10.7% |
What strikes me is how little 1-1 moves. It sits in the low forties in every band. The share that changes is the split between the goalless draw and the higher-scoring ones. A short draw price usually means two evenly matched, cautious sides, and that is exactly where 0-0 lives.
Chapter 2The draw price in MLS is close to honest
Before trusting any score split, I want to know whether the draw itself is priced fairly. Once the margin is stripped out, the draw under 3.40 implied a 28.6% chance and landed in 28.3% of 1,278 matches. In the 3.60–3.89 band it implied 25.3% and landed 25.5% of the time across 1,317 matches.
View the data: mls draw: priced vs landed
| Priced | Landed | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.40 (1,278 matches) | 28.6% | 28.3% | ±2.5 |
| 3.40–3.59 (1,242 matches) | 26.9% | 26.1% | ±2.4 |
| 3.60–3.89 (1,317 matches) | 25.3% | 25.5% | ±2.4 |
| 3.90–4.29 (837 matches) | 23.2% | 20.8% | ±2.7 |
| 4.30+ (559 matches) | 19.7% | 21.8% | ±3.4 |
The one band that leans the other way is 4.30 or bigger, where the implied chance was 19.7% and 21.8% of 559 matches were drawn. That is a small sample, and the 95% range of ±3.4 points covers the gap, so I treat it as a hint rather than an edge. The bigger lesson is that the market reads MLS draws well, which makes the choice of score the real puzzle.
Chapter 31-1 fair odds stay tight across every draw price
Here the draw scores are shown as a share of all matches, with the break-even price next to each one. Across the whole league, 1-1 landed 10.8% of the time, a fair price of 9.26, and 0-0 landed 6.5%, a fair price of 15.38. Those are the numbers I compare against whatever correct score price I am offered.
Split by draw price, 0-0 falls from 8.1% of matches under 3.40 (fair 12.35) to 4.3% at 4.30 or bigger (fair 23.26). 1-1 barely moves by comparison, from 12.1% (fair 8.26) at the short end to 9.5% (fair 10.53) at the long end.
| Draw odds | Matches | 0-0 | Fair | 1-1 | Fair | 2-2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.40 | 1,278 | 8.1% | 12.35 | 12.1% | 8.26 | 6.9% |
| 3.40–3.59 | 1,242 | 7.2% | 13.89 | 10.9% | 9.17 | 6.6% |
| 3.60–3.89 | 1,317 | 6.4% | 15.62 | 11.3% | 8.85 | 6.2% |
| 3.90–4.29 | 837 | 4.5% | 22.22 | 9.0% | 11.11 | 5.6% |
| 4.30+ | 559 | 4.3% | 23.26 | 9.5% | 10.53 | 5.7% |
One caveat in my own words: play-off matches can carry the score after 120 minutes, and the under 3.40 band is built from a price that is rare in MLS. Neither changes the shape, but I would not read the second decimal as gospel.
Chapter 4Season swings are wide enough to mislead anyone
Year by year, the MLS draw rate ranged from 21.0% to 30.3%. 1-1 moved between 8.3% and 13.6% of matches, and 0-0 between 4.2% and 8.6%. Each season holds a few hundred matches, so a single year can drift a long way from the long-run picture without anything having changed underneath.
Matches per year range from 324 to 521.
View the data: mls draws, 1-1 and 0-0 by season
| All draws | 1-1 | 0-0 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 23.7% | 11.2% | 6.8% |
| 2013 | 25.4% | 11.8% | 5.9% |
| 2014 | 27.8% | 13.0% | 5.9% |
| 2015 | 21.0% | 9.2% | 6.2% |
| 2016 | 30.3% | 12.3% | 7.6% |
| 2017 | 24.3% | 9.0% | 7.2% |
| 2018 | 21.1% | 8.3% | 4.2% |
| 2019 | 22.6% | 10.0% | 4.5% |
| 2020 | 24.1% | 9.9% | 8.0% |
| 2021 | 27.3% | 13.6% | 6.8% |
| 2022 | 24.7% | 10.0% | 5.9% |
| 2023 | 29.2% | 12.9% | 8.6% |
| 2024 | 24.8% | 9.4% | 6.3% |
In 2024, to October, 24.8% of matches were drawn and 9.4% finished 1-1, close to the long-term draw rate but a touch light on 1-1. I would not chase that. One season is not enough to move a fair price I have built from thirteen years of results.
Before you bet in this league
- Default draw score is 1-143.0% of MLS draws finished 1-1, and that share held in every draw price band. Across all matches its fair price is 9.26, so anything shorter is paying you less than the history suggests.
- Short draw price, consider 0-0With the draw under 3.40, 0-0 landed in 8.1% of matches, a fair price of 12.35. At 4.30 or bigger it fell to 4.3%, so 0-0 at long draw prices needs a much bigger number to make sense.
- Trust the long runSingle seasons swung from 21.0% to 30.3% drawn, so one hot year is weak evidence. Compare correct score prices with the full-sample fair odds rather than this season's form.
Questions bettors ask
What is the most common draw score in MLS?
1-1, by a clear margin. It accounted for 43.0% of MLS draws, ahead of 0-0 at 25.6% and 2-2 at 25.0%.
What are fair odds for a 1-1 in MLS?
Across all MLS matches 1-1 landed 10.8% of the time, which gives fair odds of 9.26. In matches with the draw priced 3.40–3.59 it landed 10.9%, a fair price of 9.17.
How often do MLS matches end 0-0?
0-0 landed in 6.5% of all MLS matches, fair odds 15.38. It is much more common when the draw is short: 8.1% of matches with the draw under 3.40, against 4.3% at 4.30 or bigger.
I'm Jacob Lockwood, and after a year of writing about football betting, I focus mainly on Correct Score and Over/Under markets.
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